I think Kean has a good chance, based upon public reaction to the new Governor - "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" - and Menendez, but a portion of Kean's support undoubtably comes from folks who think his Dad is running. Whether they will stick with him when they get up to speed is anyone's guess. Mine is that most of them will, but not all.

The GOP's best shot at picking up a Dem seat is Minnesota by Mark Kennedy, at least right now. Other weak Democratic first-termers Stabenow {MI} and Cantwell {WA} didn't get "targeted" in any effective sense, but both are polling very low for an incumbent, and either or both could lose.

Ben Nelson {NE} also has a strong opponent, but has probably voted conservative enough to defend his seat. Bill Nelson {FL} has voted straight moonbat, far to the left of his state, but he is getting about the only Republican opponent he can beat in Liz Harris.

Alex, It's so great to see you at Wizbang! Love your political prognostications. Welcome, friend! It's good to see you.

I hope Kean can pull this off. But he is going to need help. New Jersey needs Kean, and Pennsulvania needs Swan.

The problem I see is that 20 to 33% of those polled keep coming back with undecided. Which means either they aren't going to vote (I haven't been able to tell how well the polls are doing at picking out likely voters) or that they will decide later in the campaign (its not like we don't have some time).

Unless there is some 'event', I suspect these late deciders will break for the D out of habit. I would like to see Kean get above 50% and outside of the margin of error before I will think this is going to be a GOP pick-up.

I agree that MN is a good shot for a GOP pick up, but keep an eye on MD also. It will especially be interesting to see how the polls handle the Black vote. Steele should pull anything from 5% (what he pulled with Ehrliche in Gov/Lt gov race) and 44% (what he polls as individual if you didn't hang an R after him). The conventional wisdom I have heard is 25% of the black vote and he wins in a walk.

Alex,
It 's good to hear from you again. Wizbang is now my "home" blog.

Having been fooled by New Jersey polling before which invariably promises tidings of joy to Republican candidates, I automatically add 5 points to any Democrat in New Jersey. I'll believe a Kean victory when I see it.

The challenge with this and other Polls is the bias of the parties involved. I seriously question all polling results regardless of where they originate. In fact, I usually ignore them as "garbage".

That seems to be a more rational approach.