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Will All Politics Be Local This November?

Earlier this week, Ron Fournier wrote of his three step formula for a Democrat landslide.

Republicans are three steps from a November shellacking _ each a grim possibility if habitually divided Democrats get their acts together.


First step: Voters must focus on the national landscape on Nov. 7 rather than local issues and personalities that usually dominate midterm elections.

That would sting Republicans, who trail badly in national polls.

Second step: Voters must be so angry at Washington and politics in general that an anti-incumbent, throw-the-bums-out mentality sweeps the nation.

That would wound Republicans, the majority party.

Third step: Americans must view the elections as a referendum on President Bush and the GOP-led Congress, siding with Democrats in a symbolic vote against the Iraq war, rising gas prices, economic insecurity and the nagging sense that the nation is on the wrong track.

That would destroy Republicans, sweeping them from power in one or both chambers and making Bush a lame duck.

Less than six months out, most Democratic and Republican strategists say the first two elements are in place for now _ a national, anti- incumbent mind-set _ and all signs point to the third.

While I suspect Fournier's vision is comforting to Democrats, it is not fully thought out in at least one way that seems glaringly obvious to me.

What Fournier ignores are the various ways a national election could hurt Democrats. Depending on a "throw the bums out" strategy or one based on numbers alone (Republicans are the majority and would thus suffer greater losses) does not take into account some major problems Democrats will face if running nationally.

If Democrats decide to nationalize the congressional elections and begin showing ads not focusing on their candidates, but rather attacking President Bush and the Republican majority, they should expect Republicans to fight back in kind. Here are just a couple of possible Republican messages that could spell trouble for Democrats in a nationalized election:

  • Democrats are the party of Pelosi, Reid and Dean. Heck, Republicans might even decide to go ahead and throw in Michael Moore and Cindy Sheehan for good measure. Running nationally against an unpopular majority party might sound like a good idea until Democrats look around at the "national faces" of their party.
  • Democrats are the party of no ideas. It is often possible to get away with hammering an opponent, while offering no solutions of your own. I believe that those days may be coming to an end, though, especially when the candidate getting hammered points out his opponent's lack of alternate solutions. With big problems like illegal immigration, rising fuel costs, and Islamic terrorism, most people now realize that attacking the other guy does nothing to solve the problem.
  • Democrats are the party of obstruction. If ever voters needed a reason to "throw the bums out" (the Democrat bums, that is) they need look no farther than the obstructionist tactics used by Democrats against Justices Roberts and Alito, and dozens of other lower court judges. Or maybe the Republicans could talk about the ways Democrats have obstructed domestic drilling for oil, building new refineries and nuclear power plants over at least the past couple of decades. That message might just play pretty well with those returning from their summer vacations, when gas prices are typically even higher than usual.

Those are just a few examples of the negatives for Democrats. There are also many positives that Republicans can point to such as a strong econony, tax cuts, and in spite of problems in Iraq and Afghanistan, the reputation as the stronger party on issues of national security. There are plenty of cases where Republicans in Congress have not done a terribly good job, but fortunately for them, for the most part, Democrats performed even worse.

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Comments (14)

I wrote about that AP propa... (Below threshold)

I wrote about that AP propaganda here: http://www.letfreedomringblog.com/2006/05/29/democrats-eye-november-landslide/

Here's a little portion of what I said:

First step: Voters must focus on the national landscape on Nov. 7 rather than local issues and personalities that usually dominate midterm elections. That would sting Republicans, who trail badly in national polls.

Actually, this is 'conventional wisdom' at its worst. Nationalizing this election on the issue of who's serious about fighting the GWOT casts Democrats in an awful light, whether it's Dean's "We can't win", Pelosi's endorsement of Murtha's "immediate withdrawal" plan or Teddy Kennedy's quagmire.

Nationalizing the economy would also be a smart move on Republicans' part. Unemployment is low, productivity is high, home ownership, both overall and amongst minorities, is at record levels. Peoples' 401(k) plans are growing. The deficit is dropping, with it likely to come in under $300 billion this year. And the Bush tax cuts are working.

"The fear I have as a Democrat is that if we are making this solely a referendum on the Republicans, we are not giving people a reason to turn out," said Democratic strategist Chris Lehane of California. "Having said that, I think all these other elements are so bad for the Republicans that 'Had enough?' should be enough."

That's a major mistake, Mr. Lehane. That's a fatal mistake, in fact. It might be different if this were more like 1994, when a perfect storm happened. That year, people had a positive image of Republicans and a bad image of Democrats. This year, most people are disgusted with both parties to a certain extent. The people don't think Democrats are more trustworthy ethically than Republicans. The people don't think that Democrats are more trustworthy in setting war policy than Republicans.

Frankly, people had a positive image of the GOP in 94. That can't be said of Democrats in 06.

If those things aren't enough, then there's John Murtha, who's trashed the military & is driving voters away from the Democratic Party in droves.

I'm predicting that this doom & gloom painting that the Agenda Media is painting isn't the picture voters will see this fall.

What many pundits ignore, i... (Below threshold)

What many pundits ignore, in their zeal to see good fortune ahead for the far left, is that a good portion of those who "disapprove" of Bush's job performance and who think the country is "on the wrong track" do so NOT from the perspective that he is too conservative. On the contrary, many feel as they do because they believe Bush and the Republican Congress are not nearly conservative ENOUGH.

That's not necessarily good for GOP turnout, but neither is it a harbinger of Democratic landslides.

Similarly, Gary Gross points out, the Democrats aren't offering any coherent set of alternative policies. The last "new idea" they had was nationalized health care, first proposed by Ted Kennedy in his 1972 book In Critical Condition. They don't even have a working consensus on Iraq, being hopelessly divided among the "stay the course as long as it takes" folks like Hilarity! and Lieberman - admittedly a shrinking share of the elected officials, but still a sizable share of their voters - the "phased withdrawal" folks like Biden, and the "run like hell" folks from the moonbat left.


Midterm elections are, in recent years, a function of turnout and competitive seats. There are few open seats, and only about 30 truly competitive districts this year - defined as those in which the incumbent won with less than 55% last time or those which were won by the other party's Presidential candidate. The "competitive" seats are held by 19 GOPers and 11 Dems.

It is difficult to see, under current conditions {which may be altered by future events, of course}, a swing of more than about six House seats, not enough to take the majority.


In the Senate, the GOP is looking at a probable wash. While Chaffee and Santorum are vulnerable, DeWine and Talent are probably less so than popular punditry holds. Republicans are making credible runs at open Democratic seats in Minnesota and Maryland and the appointed seat in New Jersey. Challengers to weak Democratic incumbents in Michigan and Washington aren't whipped yet, either.

I like seeing Fournier abandon any pretense of objectivity, which was all a sham anyway, and come out rooting hard for the Dems, though. Honesty in journalism is always desirable.

As far as his and other leftists' dreams coming true in November, though . . . Sorry, kids, but it's beginning to look a lot like Fitzmas.

;)

Adding to what the other tw... (Below threshold)
JohnMc:

Adding to what the other two posters is what is happening in the Republican primary period. Nebraska and Calif. are showing that Immigration is becoming THE ISSUE with the voters. Shockwaves will commence in the House if Chris Cannon, incumbent Utah, is shoved aside by his challenger. Voting is June 27 if memory serves.

John Jacob actually beat Cannon in the first round but Utah requires at least a 60% majority. Hence the runoff. If Jacob does in Cannon every Pro-Amensty RINO better be looking for cover. And the WH better be prepared to quadripple the troops at the border. THE MESSAGE is being sent.

Nor does this bode well for the Dims. Because what is happening is that pro-enforcement candidates are being picked by the Republican electorate who will be viable in the general election. So the incumbent defeats in the primaries makes the Dims job harder not easier.

Any conventional wisdom that assumes Immigration is not the 800# gorilla in the room is false.

"Any conventional wisdom th... (Below threshold)

"Any conventional wisdom that assumes Immigration is not the 800# gorilla in the room is false."

I've been saying that that's the case for awhile now. You can believe it isn't but that doesn't make it truth.

That said, I think the message that people should be sending their senators is that they'd better move alot closer to the House bill if they expect anything to come out of conference.

If that happens, then the big rift in the GOP will largely disappear.

I've attended a few GOP events the past week or so & I keep looking for this "demoralized GOP" taht everyone keeps talking about. Frankly, I don't think it exists based on what I'm seeing.

The people that I'm talking with are upset as hell with Murtha & they didn't much like what happened with Kavanaugh either. Those things alone are enough to drive turnout up.

Are you guys seriously disc... (Below threshold)
Lee:

Are you guys seriously discussing trying to resurrect the Republican Party?

Oh wait - sepaking of dummies...

news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060601/ap_on_re_us/coin_dealer_donations

Ohio coin dealer pleads guilty to charges

TOLEDO, Ohio - A coin dealer and prominent GOP fundraiser at the center of an Ohio political scandal pleaded guilty Wednesday to federal charges he illegally funneled about $45,000 to President Bush's re-election campaign.

I'ts time for reinvention folks.

Nice try Lee. Delivery was ... (Below threshold)
JohnMc:

Nice try Lee. Delivery was a little off. And just like in a chess match I will trade a pawn (coin dealer) for a bishop (Dim Congressman) any time. Checkmate. Besides your party better check the mood out there. Your guys are out there pushing the open borders ticket trying to get the hispanic vote. Better look behind you because that will push the black vote Republican.

Gary, probably a little early to tell about the mood, but you are correct in the assessment.More likely people are smouldering in the trenches over the immigration thing and will pour out over the top when the election draws near.

And just like in a chess... (Below threshold)
astigafa:

And just like in a chess match I will trade a pawn (coin dealer) for a bishop (Dim Congressman) any time. Checkmate.

Is he always this lame? Another Sidney Sheldon.

Hey JohnMc: It's quiet. Too quiet.

just like in a chess mat... (Below threshold)
Lee:

just like in a chess match I will trade a pawn (coin dealer) for a bishop (Dim Congressman) any time.

That explains why you're such a loser. The topic here is national election strategies. The Dim Congressman you refer to is just another in the (mostly Republican) long line of low-class local crooks.

Scandals which touch the Republican presidency have a much great "across the board" national effect on the voters in a national election.

You're not smart enough to recognize that. Yet another reason why the *ss-licking in November will be so spectacular.

So Lee am I to assume by th... (Below threshold)
JohnMc:

So Lee am I to assume by the comment "...The Dim Congressman you refer to is just another in the (mostly Republican) long line of low-class local crooks." Are you abscribing that W. Jefferson has an (R) next to his name? Last time I checked he was a (D)emocrat. And as to the national scene, a Congressman is a hell of a lot more national than some damn coin dealer.

Lee, when the dust settles, I bet we will find the current political landscape pretty much the way it is right now. You preceive that some dirt on some Republican means a sweep in November. What you are missing is that the Republican electorate is correcting that problem in the primaries. Incumbents not toeing the rank and file mood are being swept aside for fresh talent.

And whether the Dims? Oh gee, Ms Hillary is getting savaged in the press, cable circuit and blogs. And who is in ascendency as the heir apparent? Al Gore. Al Gore!!!? Mr. speech spitting, invented the Internet, totally out of it Gore. Oh but wait there is another... (in my best Yoda Chaucer) Yes there is, and it's, wait for it...., Chris Dodd!....??? My God man, they had to do a 'setup' on MSNBC to even tell the viewer who he was before they could even describe why Dodd is qualified. 20 years in the Senate and the sucker is a wallflower. And this would be a front runner for your Party? Sigh...

The best man you have is Joe Lieberman. Neither the DNC or MO.Stupid will support him. Fact, the DNC is going to try and oust him this time around. How much sense does that make in the Senatorial body count?

Lee, put down the bong, breath deeply and realize that the Donkey has steered so far left of the electorate that they are not even on the same road let alone using the same map.

astigafa,Calm befo... (Below threshold)
JohnMc:

astigafa,

Calm before the storm. Watch some of the local actions.

* W.VA. city voters turning out nearly the whole city council for building a 'immigrant center' to displace local workers.
* Gilcrest, a newcomber getting a 1/3rd of the vote as an independent. The Nebraska incumbent Governor being beaten because he favored providing in state tuition for illegals.
* The 50th District Rep primary being won by a man who ran on close the border ticket.
* Chris Cannon, incumbent Utah, being forced to run runoff against a near unknown who ran on a closed borders campaign.

The Rep electorate is cleaning house. No fanfare, just quietly putting down the RINOs like the horse with a broken leg that they are. If Cannon loses the runoff, S.2611 won't even survive the opening monologe in committee. The Rep House will be running for the tall grass.

Oooh, Lee, you don't have t... (Below threshold)
Aubrey:

Oooh, Lee, you don't have to wait until November! You can start the *ss-licking now!

JohnMc: You are proving to ... (Below threshold)
Lee:

JohnMc: You are proving to be too dense for me and I'll not waste any more of my time on you. Your insanity speaks loudly all on its own; it doesn't need any amplification from me.

Aubrey: I meant to say *ss kicking, but *ss licking does describe the extent to which Republicans will be kissing various voting groups *sses in an attempt to gain votes, eh?

Yes Lee, I am 'dumb', just ... (Below threshold)
JohnMc:

Yes Lee, I am 'dumb', just like the rest of the 'dumb' electorate. So when all us 'dummies' cast ballots in November, just you 'smart' people remember that 52% beats 48%.

I just love how your Party likes to say 'Defeat is a victory because it was close.' Keep thinking that please!

Lee is just trying to chang... (Below threshold)

Lee is just trying to change the subject again, folks.

If he is convinced he is "wasting time" on us, why does he hang around? To disrupt and mislead.

Summer vacation for another loser.




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