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In 2004, Cuningham defeated Busby 58%-37%. President Bush carried the district by a narrower, 10 point gap.
When Cunningham resigned in disgrace, Democrats across the nation touted this as a golden opportunity to take back the House.
Well the results are in and Busby lost.
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Comments (20)
Huh?I hope you are... (Below threshold)1. Posted by James Williams | June 7, 2006 12:08 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Huh?
I hope you are right, but so far, only absentee ballots have been reported. Aren't we being a little premature?
1. Posted by James Williams | June 7, 2006 12:08 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 00:08
2. Posted by Hestrold | June 7, 2006 12:10 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Yeah, I've watched the returns roll in many times. The real payoff is when you know what districts have reported and what they've done historically. That is, until you get closer to 25% reporting in.
2. Posted by Hestrold | June 7, 2006 12:10 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 00:10
3. Posted by smh10 | June 7, 2006 12:19 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Those of us who know your work trust you. Are you seeing something we haven't see yet?
3. Posted by smh10 | June 7, 2006 12:19 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 00:19
4. Posted by ed | June 7, 2006 12:32 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Hmmmm.
Cunningham?
Isn't he in jail?
I certainly hope this is a typo and you really mean Bilbray.
4. Posted by ed | June 7, 2006 12:32 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 00:32
5. Posted by smh10 | June 7, 2006 12:34 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
ed:
In 2004 Cunningham defeated Busby. I sure am glad that I'm not the only one who sometimes reads ahead of themselves especially when it gets late.
5. Posted by smh10 | June 7, 2006 12:34 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 00:34
6. Posted by McCain | June 7, 2006 1:04 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
LOL, this looks like an automatic post that was jobbed to post at midnight. Bilbray should win here, but the results were definitely not "in" when this post was made.
6. Posted by McCain | June 7, 2006 1:04 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 01:04
7. Posted by Vero | June 7, 2006 1:21 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
NBC is saying Bilbray has won just like God intended it to be.
7. Posted by Vero | June 7, 2006 1:21 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 01:21
8. Posted by beancounter | June 7, 2006 2:08 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Bilbray must be winning because if you look at the MSM websites they are not headlining any of the election results. If the results were favorable to the libs or DEMS you would see nothing but how the election results show the GOP and Bush are in trouble in Nov.
8. Posted by beancounter | June 7, 2006 2:08 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 02:08
9. Posted by ed | June 7, 2006 2:09 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Hmmmm.
You're right, I did mis-read it. Thanks.
9. Posted by ed | June 7, 2006 2:09 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 02:09
10. Posted by BrandonInBatonRouge | June 7, 2006 2:34 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
According to the official SD County results page (linked in an earlier post), the count is now at 49.8% for Bilbray and 44.44% for Busby with 35.6% of precincts reporting.
If I were Bilbray, I'd be nervous about certain precincts holding back until they can find out how many votes are needed to overcome his lead.
10. Posted by BrandonInBatonRouge | June 7, 2006 2:34 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 02:34
11. Posted by McCain | June 7, 2006 4:26 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Ok, 4 hours after McClure's cron-jobbed post claimed that the votes were "in", the votes are in fact about 70% in now. Statistically, Busby can't make up enough ground, so the clairvoyant prediction of a Bilbray win, although completely expected, is correct in the final analysis.
11. Posted by McCain | June 7, 2006 4:26 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 04:26
12. Posted by Cybrludite | June 7, 2006 5:22 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
90.2% in, and Bibray is ahead by nearly 5000 votes.
12. Posted by Cybrludite | June 7, 2006 5:22 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 05:22
13. Posted by ordi | June 7, 2006 6:21 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Bilbray has WON! The race has been declared.
This makes Busby a TWO TIME LOSER for this seat! Nov it will make her a Three Time Loser.
13. Posted by ordi | June 7, 2006 6:21 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 06:21
14. Posted by millco88 | June 7, 2006 10:03 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
McCain,
When 70% of precincts are reported, that doesn't necessarily mean 70% of the votes are in since not every precinct contains the same number of total votes. Just look at the precinct level returns for any jurisdiction; you'll see a wide variance in total votes. That's why which precincts are outstanding matters so much when projecting winners.
IOW, statistics doesn't have much to do with it unless you also have an understanding of how many votes really are uncounted.
14. Posted by millco88 | June 7, 2006 10:03 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 10:03
15. Posted by McCain | June 7, 2006 1:22 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Obviously millco88, but basically NO votes were in when McClure's post was released. That is why it is so hillarious. Some of the absentee ballots had been counted, and they had NOT been posted by precinct at that time. The returns came in much slower than advertised.
It is pretty obvious what happened with this post, and it is quite amusing, in a sort of Nostradamus way. Let McClure explain it rather than you. Most of his analysis is excellent, which is why I am glad to find him here. But to pretend to post the "results" ahead of time because he wanted to sleep?
15. Posted by McCain | June 7, 2006 1:22 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 13:22
16. Posted by millco88 | June 7, 2006 4:18 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
McCain,
The post wasn't until 12:03 am. That's after the polls closed. Now if you want to say Alexander had it already loaded and ready to go and was waiting for some kind of confirmation, that's fine. But to call him out for delayed posting without any proof strikes me as a fishing expedition. I mean the obvious reply would be he had access to exit polls or just figured that since the media wasn't trumpeting a Busby victory, that probably meant Bilbray was the winner.
16. Posted by millco88 | June 7, 2006 4:18 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 16:18
17. Posted by hNAV | June 7, 2006 4:22 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
HOORRAAAAAY !
nice to see Mr. McClure, Ms. Byrd, and Mr. Drummond together again as well...
outstanding !
17. Posted by hNAV | June 7, 2006 4:22 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 16:22
18. Posted by McCain | June 7, 2006 5:02 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
millco88,
exit polls? show me them.
Since you obviously were not up last night either, the reason this post was so funny at the time is that nobody had any results at that time. Yes it was after the polls closed, but the results were incredibly delayed. They were EXPECTED by the time this post was pre-dated, but nobody had them because they were late. The results were not "in". Why do you insist on defending McClure's post when he won't do it himself?
18. Posted by McCain | June 7, 2006 5:02 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 17:02
19. Posted by Adjoran | June 7, 2006 10:36 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Maybe Alex doesn't feel the need to "defend himself."
I mean, when you are driving through the country and pass a jackass in a field, do you feel compelled to stop the car, get out, and bray?
EVERY time?
;-)
19. Posted by Adjoran | June 7, 2006 10:36 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 7, 2006 22:36
20. Posted by McCain | June 10, 2006 1:07 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Well, YOU just did. Why do you care so deeply to protect "Alex" honor? Got some kind of crush? His analytical skills are much better than yours, and you'll note by now that his silence affirms the obvious. You are the only person among us who isn't smart enough to follow a simple timeline.
20. Posted by McCain | June 10, 2006 1:07 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 10, 2006 01:07