I don't like or trust Zogby's polling, except to slant Left. So it is interesting to read his latest look at the Senate races, via the Wall Street Journal. The numbers are interesting, but the basics are these:
The Republicans hold 55 seats, the Democrats hold 44, and one seat belongs to Indecision. Assuming a 5-point or more lead represents a good hold, of the 17 races considered, Republicans incumbents are in good position to hold their seat in 7 races, the Democrats incumbents are in good position to hold their seats in 7 races, and of the remaining three races, two are tied (one Democrat incumbent, one Republican incumbent) and one race shows a Democrat running for a Democrat-held seat leading by less than a point. So even Zogby is admitting, in the numbers if not in his headlines, that the Republicans look good right now to hold what they have.
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Comments (2)
"Online poll," which means ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Adjoran | June 22, 2006 12:58 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"Online poll," which means it is even more worthless than the usual Zogby crapola.
Zogby Interactive of Utica, N.Y. has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby.
Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.
The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 50 telephone calls in 19 states (AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.
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1. Posted by Adjoran | June 22, 2006 12:58 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 22, 2006 12:58
2. Posted by Josh "Maury" Narins | June 23, 2006 11:22 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Hardly a typical online poll, though. I've never heard of one before with pre-registration, personal data validation and phone follow ups.
Doesn't mean its valid, but I have no idea.
2. Posted by Josh "Maury" Narins | June 23, 2006 11:22 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 23, 2006 11:22