2006 Pennsylvania Governor and Senate Race (Wizbang Politics)

A new Strategic Vision poll reports that Bob Casey and Ed Rendell have marginally widened their lead over Rick Santorum and Lynn Swann. Unfortunately, the overall numbers of the poll do not pass muster with me.

These were selected numbers from the June Poll
Bush Overall Job Performance: 24% approve, 66% disapprove
Rendell Job Performance: 48% approve, 39% disapprove
Santorum Job Performance: 46% approve, 49% disapprove

These are the selected numbers from the July Poll
Bush Overall Job Performance: 26% approve, 64% disapprove
Rendell Job Performance: 47% approve, 39% disapprove
Santorum Job Performance: 46% approve, 46% disapprove

First, we see that Rendell's approval rating actually went down; yet, Lynn Swann was the one whose numbers fell. At the same time, Rick Santorum, whose disapprovals fell 3 points, made no progress against Bobby Casey, Jr. and actually slid a point.

Second, and even more important, is the sample of voters that this poll is using. There is something wrong when President Bush's overall job performance in Pennsylvania is 26% and, according to a recent Strategic Vision poll in New Jersey, his approval rating there is 35%. 8 points better in New Jersey than Pennsylvania?

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Comments (3)

AKM,You have to co... (Below threshold)

1. Posted by Tony | July 20, 2006 10:50 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Tony:

AKM,

You have to consider sampling error (among other things) when comparing trends in polls.

You cannot really say Rendell's rating went "down" just because it is 48 one month and 47 the next. The poll had a sampling error of +-3%, so Rendell's rating could have even gone up a little bit. Ditto when you say Samtorum slid a point against Casey.

Posted on July 20, 2006 22:50

See some of the old posts o... (Below threshold)

2. Posted by Tony | July 20, 2006 10:57 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

See some of the old posts on The Horse Race Blog for good tips on analyzing polls: http://jaycost.blogspot.com/

Posted on July 20, 2006 22:57

And no matter how you slice... (Below threshold)

3. Posted by Gigantic Antics | July 21, 2006 12:41 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Gigantic Antics:

And no matter how you slice these polls, Santorum is out and Swann is going down. You better put your hopes into some of those close US House elections, because Pennsylvania is not as purple as you would like.

Posted on July 21, 2006 00:41