Excellent analysis in the Washington Post by Jim VandeHei:
When it comes to President Bush and the Republican Congress, Rep. Jim Gerlach says voters in his suburban Philadelphia district are in a "sour mood."
That's why when it comes to his reelection, the two-term incumbent says "the name of the game" is to convince those same voters that he can be independent of his own party. He has turned his standard line about Bush -- "When I think he's wrong, I let him know" -- into a virtual campaign slogan, repeated in interviews and TV ads."It is a combination of things, from the war in Iraq to gas prices to what they are experiencing in their local areas," Gerlach said of the surly electorate whose decision he will know on Nov. 7.
The Iraq war and Bush's low approval ratings have created trouble for Republicans in all regions. But nowhere is the GOP brand more scuffed than in the Northeast, where this year's circumstances are combining with long-term trends to endanger numerous incumbents.
A long article, but full of valuable insight - read the whole thing at the link above.
Hat-tip to the Free Internet Press for the pointer to the story.
It's illustrative of the growing division of the parties along ideological lines that moderate and moderate-conservative Republicans are under siege almost as much as moderate Democrats who support the war.
UPDATE 5:30 a.m.: Before anyone else points it out, I should note the Republicans are more at risk in general elections, while the Democrats are eating their own.
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2006 Senate Race, Commentary, Congressional Races, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Political Roundup, Strategy
Comments (3)
Interesting that NY-24 (my ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Robin | August 14, 2006 8:33 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Interesting that NY-24 (my district) shows up on that list - I think that Boehlert managed to keep his seat out of a more conservative Republican's hands simply because of his longevity in the House. In the last election cycle, the conservative candidate got something like 12% of the GOP vote and Boehlert still won with something like 60% of the overall vote.
This district may be in upstate NY, but the biggest constituencies in both Utica and Auburn have strong religious ties, primarily to the Catholic church. Meier's opponent is running as a "Democrat Boehlert" which he pretty much has to do to win. Social issues are huge and the sour economy in NY looms large as well - Meier has to correctly and carefully throw the blame at state government for that. Carefully, I note, because he is a member of the state senate.
I don't think that this is a problem district for the GOP nor does the article.
1. Posted by Robin | August 14, 2006 8:33 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 14, 2006 08:33
2. Posted by Ironman | August 14, 2006 9:41 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Upstate NY has a weak economy and the top of the ticket will be a Dem wipeout. Hence, no rest for Meier
CT has a strong economy, a popular GOP governor and a Dem civil war. And they need to take out three pretty adept GOP incumbents here to win the House
2. Posted by Ironman | August 14, 2006 9:41 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 14, 2006 21:41
3. Posted by Jim Addison | August 15, 2006 2:21 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Meier is also more of a conservative than Boehlert, and the Democrats are definitely targeting the seat. It's an open seat in a mixed district in a Democratic state having a Democratic year.
Don't get me wrong, I hope he wins. It's just one of those races all the analysts expect to competitive.
In CT, I expect Lieberman's indie bid will help the three endangered GOP incumbents a little, not much - but maybe enough.
3. Posted by Jim Addison | August 15, 2006 2:21 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 15, 2006 02:21