Christopher Tidmore, Political Columnist for the Louisiana Weekly, on Jefferson's dim hopes, and why:
When well-financed opposition comes from both the left and the right, usually an incumbent Congressman should begin sending out resumes to DC-based lobbying firms. Of course, Bill Jefferson's job prospects might be somewhat limited. Few advocacy retainers come in the form of frozen cash.
Nevertheless, local political groups smell the blood in the ice, err, water, and have fielded candidates to confront the Second District Congressman's re-election bid. The potential match-ups are so strong, that a real possibility exists that Jefferson might not make the runoff.Part of the Congressman's problem emerges from the obvious Nigeria scandal and its offshoots, i.e. commandeering a military Humvee after Katrina to retrieve "files" from his home. The Congressman's main hope for surviving the scandal has rested in the promise that his seniority could be leveraged to provide necessary financial assistance to a district still reeling from Katrina. Yet, time in Congress, as any student of Capitol Hill dynamics will attest, only counts as far as it provides placement on key committees that control the money - or in Jefferson's case, the tax credits that other Congressmen need and will use their clout to obtain.
The decision by the Democratic caucus to remove Jefferson from Ways and Means removed the major justification for his re-election. Even without an indictment, his opponents are expected to argue, Jefferson's usefulness to the citizens of the Second District has come to an end.
Read the rest of this well-written obituary at the link above.
I rate this contest as "Lean Democratic Prison Girlfriend" - unless Jefferson hops a slow white Bronco to the border soon.
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