The Democrats have been trying to shuffle the order of primaries for some time now. The early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire give those states disproportionate clout in picking nominees. One of the biggest objections Democrats have to this is the states are "too white." Now they propose to penalize candidates who campaign in states (New Hampshire is the only one affected) who fail to follow the DNC schedule.
Jim Kuhnhenn reports on the flap for the Associated Press:
The Democratic Party is moving to enforce its rules in the battle between states over who goes first in the presidential primaries, taking aim at candidates in case the states themselves won't go along with the party's rejuggled 2008 schedule.
New Hampshire, with its traditional first-in-the-nation primary, says it's not going to worry about "a handful of Washington insiders."A change recommended Friday by the party's rules and bylaws committee would deny national convention delegates to any presidential candidate who campaigns in a state that leapfrogs its primary over others.
The tough stance is part of a proposed overhaul of party rules to change the decades-long tradition of keeping Iowa and New Hampshire at the starting gate of presidential nomination voting. The new party plan would insert Nevada between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary and give South Carolina greater influence by scheduling its primary a week after New Hampshire.
Read it all at link above.
Since South Carolina is already next after NH, and is simply moving up a week, the ONLY real change is the insertion of Nevada caucuses ahead of the New Hampshire primary.
All this fuss to provide "more input for minorities"? Nevada isn't as "lily white" as Iowa and New Hampshire are - but it's close, with half the black population of the national average.
UPDATE - CORRECTION 11:46 p.m. 19 Aug 06: As reader kgb999 notes in the comments below, while their black population is below the national average, with nearly 20% Hispanics and 8% other races, the state exceeds national averages in those categories, so Nevada is indeed a "more diverse" population than either Iowa or New Hampshire, and does offer "more input for minorities." I stand corrected on the point.
The strong-arm tactics of penalizing candidates for campaigning seems a bit tough on First Amendment rights, but Democrats seldom worry about such niceties unless they can use them against political opponents. Perhaps the bullying by the DNC will be enough to tilt New Hampshire back into the Republican column.
UPDATE: It's apparently almost a done deal according to AP, check the link. I love this quote:
Others complain that the added contests in Nevada and South Carolina so front-load the nomination process that the party's nominee could be determined by the beginning of February, before most states even get a chance to vote.
"You're ceding authority to those four states," said Kathleen Sullivan, the chairman of the Democratic Party in New Hampshire and a member of the DNC's rules committee.
See, it was no problem when it was ONLY New Hampshire . . . but "sharing the power" is somehow undemocratic. Curious. The article also quotes Drake University Poli-Sci Prof. Dennis Goldford as speculating the new schedule might INCREASE Iowa's influence. Under the old rules, he suggests, candidates had a couple of weeks to recover from a gaffe or stumble in the campaign, whereas now the slightest miscue could derail them on the tightened docket.



Comments (5)
It has more to do with geog... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Drew | August 18, 2006 11:21 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It has more to do with geography..a western thing..
Colorado would have been moved up but Denver will get the Convention...I will be surprised if the RNC doesn't do a little manipulating..
1. Posted by Drew | August 18, 2006 11:21 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 18, 2006 23:21
2. Posted by Jim Addison | August 19, 2006 11:54 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
If the parties could get together, they could come up with a better system. No matter what states are first, they have an extraordinary influence on the races. Candidates who don't come in the top two in one of the first contests see their funding dry up fast.
Ideally, there should be some sort of rotation over time. The order should be shuffled - perhaps randomly, but with some program instruction not to put Florida and Washington state on the same week, for example, so as not to force candidates to spend their campaign money flying back and forth across the country. Not necessarily "regional," but within reason.
New Hampshire will squeal, of course, because they've grown to like the attention. But the old joke Jay Tea reprised the other day is too close to truth:
NH Man: So, what do you think of Candidate "X"?
NH Woman: I'm not sure yet - I've only met him three times.
They need to get over themselves up there.
2. Posted by Jim Addison | August 19, 2006 11:54 AM |
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Posted on August 19, 2006 11:54
3. Posted by yetanotherjohn | August 19, 2006 12:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Just like the democrats threats to 'punish' Lieberman can be seen as a sort of insurance to make sure they don't have a majority if they manage to pick up six seats, I think this is just a bit of insurance on their part to be sure and not pick up New Hampshires 4 EV in case the 2008 election is close.
3. Posted by yetanotherjohn | August 19, 2006 12:24 PM |
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Posted on August 19, 2006 12:24
4. Posted by kgb999 | August 19, 2006 1:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
1.The order of primaries should rotate - everyone should have an opportunity to be "kingmaker" for a year.
2.There are actually several other non-white races out there that are not black. In Nevada's case, it has a solid black demographic that compliments significant populations of latino and white voters - making it even more diverse than a 50/50 black/white mix.
3.Nobody threatened to "punish" Lieberman. They simply stated that the Democratic establishment would support the candidate who was elected in the primary by democrat voters. This is appropriate. To some extent, it's the republican candidate who is being punished - the GOP establishment is falling over themselves to support Lieberman (who said he intends to rejoin the Dems) and leaving their own out in the cold.
4. Posted by kgb999 | August 19, 2006 1:17 PM |
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Posted on August 19, 2006 13:17
5. Posted by Jim Addison | August 19, 2006 11:45 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Nevada has a strong Hispanic population, nearly 20%, that's true. They are also almost 50% higher than the national average in "other races," which would include South Asian.
So, while their percentage of blacks is only half the national rate, these other populations do make them far more "diverse" than either Iowa or New Hampshire, as kgb999 notes above. I amend my original statement to acknowledge this fact, and will post a correction in a few minutes.
I don't think it is unfair to say Lieberman was "punished" by the party in the primary. Any time an incumbent gets whipped in his own party primary, he's been taken to the woodshed. However, having lost the nomination, there isn't much the Democrats, in Connecticut or nationally, can do to "punish" him further.
They can beat him in the election, of course they would hope for that. But if he pulls it out, he has declared his intent to caucus with the Democrats. Any attempt to "punish" him by withdrawing his seniority might cause him to cross the aisle, where Republicans might well offer to carry over his seniority to induce him to join their caucus.
5. Posted by Jim Addison | August 19, 2006 11:45 PM |
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Posted on August 19, 2006 23:45