As the Democrats brawl in their bruising primary campaign to replace retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes (D) of Maryland, GOP nominee Lt. Gov. Michael Steele has quietly edged into competiveness with either of his likely opponents, a new Rasmussen Reports poll suggests:
In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the competitive U.S. Senate contest in Maryland, Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele slightly trails each Democratic contender. Congressman Ben Cardin (D) leads Steele 47% to 42%. Former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume (D) leads the Republican 46% to 44%. This sets the stage for a closely fought general election no matter which Democrat wins the September 12 primary.
* * * * *Another surprise in the race is the ongoing competitiveness of presumptive GOP nominee Michael Steele in this very blue state. Despite ups and downs in his campaign and the polls, Steele is right back where he started over a year ago. Our first poll in this race, conducted in July 2005, Steele was only five points behind Cardin.
Read it all at the link above.
A cautionary note: while this is a poll of "likely voters," at this early stage it may have little predictive value, and the margin of error of ± 4.5% means Steele could actually be as much as 14 points behind Cardin - OR slightly ahead. Still, this is encouraging news for Republicans in this very dark blue state.
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2006 Senate Race, Maryland, Polls
Comments (2)
I am very hopeful for Steel... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Plaid Aardvark | August 19, 2006 9:15 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I am very hopeful for Steele, but the problem with Maryland is not that it’s a deep blue state -- rather there are only 3 counties/1 city that determine the winner of an election; Montgomery, Prince George’s, and Baltimore City/County. All of which are, in them selves, very deep blue.
Steele has an uphill battle in these counties, since you have the elite-white-liberals in southern Montgomery (Potomac, Bethesda, etc.) and northern Baltimore County (outside the beltway) while the African American liberal voting bloc is dominate in PG and Baltimore City. It’s a tough road, but seeing Steele’s holding a close second for now is a good sign.
1. Posted by Plaid Aardvark | August 19, 2006 9:15 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 19, 2006 21:15
2. Posted by Jim Addison | August 19, 2006 11:27 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Thanks for the more detailed information.
We encourage readers and visitors to speak up with any info they have on races in their own home states or districts, especially where what we provide or link to is inaccurate or incomplete.
Steele's ability to get back within striking distance of the major Democrats - and we do need to see similiar numbers in another poll before we get too excited - is encouraging. The last Republican to win a Senate race in Maryland was the liberal Charles Mathias, who won reelection as the incumbent in 1980.
2. Posted by Jim Addison | August 19, 2006 11:27 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 19, 2006 23:27