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In a very informative post at Election Projection, Scott Elliott explains why generic polls in the congressional races don't scare him.
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Comments (4)
So Scott Elliot has made th... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | August 20, 2006 3:58 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
So Scott Elliot has made the incredible discovery that "generic" Democrats do far better in polls than specific Democratic candidates do?
I thought this phenomenon had been observed back in the 1980s.
The thing is, you say "Democrat," and people think of FDR and Truman and John Kennedy. Then you name McGovern and Carter and Dukakis and Kerry, and they say, "Ewwwwww!"
1. Posted by Jim Addison | August 20, 2006 3:58 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 20, 2006 03:58
2. Posted by Lorie Byrd | August 20, 2006 4:30 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Scott is quite astute and I am certain this is not the first time he has mentioned the generic polling issue, so he is definitely not just now discovering it. He is just looking at it in relation to the polls today, in these elections, and is reminding readers of the reasons not to despair over all the polls that supposedly show Speaker Pelosi as good as in office.
2. Posted by Lorie Byrd | August 20, 2006 4:30 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 20, 2006 04:30
3. Posted by Scott Elliott | August 20, 2006 8:28 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Jim,
You are correct that Democrats never fare as well as generic polls indicate they will. Usually the discrepancy is somewhere around 3 to 6 points, in general.
With a consistent 10 to 15 point advantage in generic polls for the Dems, that would still work out to a substantial Democratic wave in November.
Head-to-head polls show a remarkably different picture, however - and that was the point of the post. Even with the generic Dem leading by double-digits, the named GOP candidates in some districts boast a double-digit lead. In terms of evaluating the generics, that's a far cry from simply saying generic Democrats do better than specific Democratic candidates do.
3. Posted by Scott Elliott | August 20, 2006 8:28 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 20, 2006 08:28
4. Posted by kirktoe | August 20, 2006 12:19 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Those numbers are astounding!!!!
maybe the Dem's should try a new strategy and run write in campaigns for all there candidates. They'd probably do better that way!
4. Posted by kirktoe | August 20, 2006 12:19 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 20, 2006 12:19