I consider the following Republican Gubernatorial chairs to be vulnerable: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Ohio, Maryland, Minnesota, Arkansas, and Colorado.
Here are my rankings for these seats right now
Massachusetts - Lean Democratic (if the third party candidate drops out, then it probably becomes Lean Republican)
Rhode Island - Toss Up (It is a toss up right now, but Republicans tend to do well here in the fall. Carcieri may have won 55% of the vote in 2002, but that had more to do with his opponent.)
New York - Solid Democratic (I really cannot believe the GOP candidate will only receive 20% of the vote. 35% though is probably the ceiling against Spitzer.)
Ohio - Lean Democratic (This race has the potential to move into the toss-up column, but I will need to see a few polls at least moving into the single digit category. If Bob Taft had any class, he would have resigned.)
Maryland - Toss Up (While polls here show the Mayor of Baltimore leading the Republican incumbent, Bob Ehrlich has very strong polling numbers. I think he will win a second term in the end, unless he makes a mistake.)
Minnesota - Lean Republican (The Republican incumbent was trailing here, but most recent polls have shown him moving into the lead over the Democratic State Attorney General.)
Arkansas - Toss Up (Polling all along here has shown the Democratic State Attorney General leading Hutchinson. However a poll to be released this week shows the lead gone.)
Colorado - Lean Democratic (If any state is causing me headaches right now, it is Colorado which seems to be inexplicably drifting left. We have a solid nominee though.)
Right now, it seems that the Republicans will lose 4 Governorships (MA, NY, OH, and CO). I feel confident we will hold RI and MN. Arkansas and Maryland are the races to watch. I hope to be able to move Colorado and Ohio, but the Republican candidates (Beauprez and Blackwell) need to wage strong campaigns as Labor Day approaches.
Later on, I will have analysis of the six Democratic Gubernatorial seats I consider to be vulnerable.
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Gubernatorial Races
Comments (6)
Sorry, but Bob Beauprez is ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Coloradan | August 20, 2006 6:32 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Sorry, but Bob Beauprez is not nearly as strong a candidate as he seems on paper. He just doesn't seem to care much about his campaign (he says he will be in DC all of September) and strange skeletons keep popping out of his closet.
1. Posted by Coloradan | August 20, 2006 6:32 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 20, 2006 18:32
2. Posted by Chell | August 20, 2006 7:28 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Ohio will not become toss up as long as Blackwell remains black. It is a racist state, and Gore lost there because of the anti-semitic anti-Lieberman vote back in 2000. Ditto for PA.
2. Posted by Chell | August 20, 2006 7:28 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 20, 2006 19:28
3. Posted by Jim Addison | August 20, 2006 8:29 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I strongly suspect the corruption of the Taft Administration hurts Blackwell and other Ohio Republican candidates far more than any race factor could.
I think Republicans will hold the top job in Minnesota, Maryland, and Arkansas {the first two being reelected, the last an open seat}. Democrats look too strong in New York, Ohio, and Colorado, and should be favored to pick up in Massachusetts and hold Pennsylvania as well.
I am also beginning to worry about Alaska, where
[Republican incumbent] Gov. Murkowski's unpopularity will be hard to overcome with a personality like his.
3. Posted by Jim Addison | August 20, 2006 8:29 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 20, 2006 20:29
4. Posted by eddiebear | August 21, 2006 12:10 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Regarding Colorado, one problem is that a ton of Californians are fleeing to that state. In an astounding show of hypocrisy, they are liberals fleeing CA's taxes, yet trying to bring them to CO.
4. Posted by eddiebear | August 21, 2006 12:10 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 21, 2006 00:10
5. Posted by Jim Addison | August 21, 2006 12:32 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Well, Beauprez is not a very charismatic campaigner, and Governor Owens, who was strong and popular throughout most of his two terms in office, is ending his tenure with a whimper, not a bang. His stature and reputation took a big hit when Ken Salazar won the Senate seat in 2004. This means any lingering "coattail effect" he might have had for a Republican successor is largely dissipated.
I expect Rep. Beauprez will close the gap and make it a tighter race. If he were better on the stump, or if it were a "Republican year" nationally, he might even win it, but neither of those conditions exist, so he has an uphill climb.
5. Posted by Jim Addison | August 21, 2006 12:32 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 21, 2006 00:32
6. Posted by yetanotherjohn | August 21, 2006 3:18 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Take a look at Michigan for the GOP
6. Posted by yetanotherjohn | August 21, 2006 3:18 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 21, 2006 15:18