Early this year, one of the pundits on FoxNews - possibly Bill Kristol, but I'm not positive - mentioned this. He said strong positives for the President help the President by putting pressure on Congress to enact his proposals, but do little to help congressional Republicans' reelection chances.

He did allow low ratings might hurt, but asserted that the approval rating didn't have to be over 50% for GOP success. He put the tipping point around 45% - admittedly arbitrarily, but with the educated guess that it was enough to ensure he didn't damage the down-ticket.

Another aspect, which I would add to those observations, is that the momemtum is very important in politics. It is far more critical the numbers be moving in the right direction than that they be at some particular level. Rising numbers will help Republicans generally, while falling ones will hurt them.

All of this is at the margins, though. It could tilt the close races one way or the other, but most contests won't be close enough for Presidential numbers to change the outcome.

It is hilarious to listen to the fMSM coverage, though, of Bush's "continuing low approval numbers." When a guy who was at 31% a couple months back improves to 42%, that's actually more than a 35% gain! They should be noting how his rating is "rocketing upward."

Not holding my breath to hear THAT, of course . . .

;-)

I talk about the numbers that are more telling about re-election chances here. Those numbers tell a much different story. Here's part of what they say:

"Only 41 percent of Americans believe that Democratic leaders in Congress ‘would move the country in the right direction,’" Mark Preston, CNN’s political editor, writes on the network’s Web site. That is slightly less than the 43 percent of Americans who believe that Republican leaders in Congress ‘would move the country in the right direction.’"

I don't know about you but I'd bet against a wave vote based on this information.

Call me fickle but I've never heard of

Gary,

That's a fascinating number you cite. It doesn't appear to have gotten much attention in the current atmosphere. Perhaps, because it runs counter to the MSM's pre-written account of the 2006 elections. I'm sure if those numbers were flipped, they'd be reported breathlessly.

Ken

Bush is in the dumper, the reps are in the dumper, the country is in the dumper due to GOP policies, and endless congressional boot-licking. The Reps will be swept away in Nov, and the world will be a much better place because of it.

Zaph. :)

"High approval ratings do not guarantee successful midterm elections"

Is not an argument for:

"Doom for Republicans because Bush has relatively weak approval numbers" is false.

It's kind of like saying:

You can't say I can't afford the yacht, because before I had more money and I couldn't even afford it then.

(The one does not follow from the other)

Umm, slight error, folks. The poll cited is not a Gallup Poll, but a CNN Poll. CNN and Gallup severed their relationship earlier this summer...

The Gallup poll like all polls have a variable of 3-5%.
Factor that into the final numbers and Bush is at Zero gain, up one point, maybe two...or he could actually be down.
Go find 10 or 15 polls, taken the same week and average them to get a more accurate result. Which will still have a large variable.

I had a friend that worked for a large survey company beginning with G for 8 months until he realized the surveys being conducted for a large bank were cooked to suit the banks marketing group. Follow the money folks.