The 8th District seat being vacated by retiring Republican Jim Kolbe is one of the key House races this midterm. Most analysts rate the contest a toss-up leading up to the September 12 primaries in both parties.

A poll just released shows anti-immigration Republican Randy Graf and Democratic former State Sen. Gabby Giffords with sizable leads in their respective primaries. Jonathan Clark of Wick News Service has the story in the Arizona Range News:

A new voter preference poll by the Arizona Range News and Wick Communications shows Democrat Gabrielle Giffords and Republican Randy Graf solidly leading their respective fields in the race to fill U.S. Rep. Jim Kolbe's Congressional District 8 seat.

The survey, which polled 300 likely Democratic and 300 likely Republican primary voters throughout the 8th district, found 44.7 percent of Democrats choosing Giffords, a former state senator and representative, over seven other contenders for their party's nomination.

Longtime TV news anchor Patty Weiss trailed Giffords at 26.7 percent, and Jeff Latas, a retired Air Force pilot, followed at 5.7 percent. Slightly more than 20 percent of Democrats said they were undecided.

On the Republican side, Graf, a former golf pro from Green Valley, led a field of five with 35.7 percent of votes to 13.3 percent for Steve Huffman, a Tucson Realtor endorsed by Kolbe. Former state party chair Mike Hellon ran third at 10.3 percent.

Read the rest at link above.

Graf's lead is surprising, as Huffman has the endorsement of Rep. Kolbe and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, but trails by nearly 3-to-1.

UPDATE 4:17 a.m.: Part of Huffman's problems may stem from his former campaign treasurer, Bill Arnold, who resigned without explanation on Monday. It is now revealed that State Sen. Toni Hellon obtained a court order restraining Arnold from harassing her. Howard Fischer of the Arizona Daily Star has the details.

UPDATE/CORRECTION 12:35 p.m.: Arnold's legal problems with Sen. Hellon could NOT have had an impact. The poll was finished August 17, and the results are being reported now. Arnold resigned on Monday the 21st. That's bad news for Huffman's campaign, because they were apparently trailing badly even before this incident broke. This can't help.

I apologize for the error.