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Swannblog has a must-read column on the polls that have been recently released on the Gubernatorial race and what they mean for the final few months of this campaign.
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Comments (1)
Since Walczak works for the... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | August 31, 2006 12:25 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Since Walczak works for the Swann campaign, his views must be seen in that light.
However, he makes a persuasive case that Rendell's support is soft, and that the two polls he analyzed must have used very soft screening for "likely voters," since we haven't seen 75% turnout in a midterm election since such statistics have been kept. In 1964, 69.3% of eligible voters cast ballots - we've experienced nothing close to that since.
I suspect the results are the product of both polls pushing undecideds for answers, and including those answers in the totals.
Swann is undoubtably substantially behind, and for him to come back and win would be a huge upset. But the point about Rendell's support, after four years in office, is well made.
If Swann can get things a bit closer, he could benefit from the momentum Santorum is creating, and Swann's energy could help Santorum, too, as the base becomes more energized and therefore even more likely to turn out.
The effects on the marginal voters on both sides is what is most important. Democrats have been led to believe that both these statewide contests were "in the bag." This makes their marginal voters less likely to bother to turn out. A sense of competitiveness on the Republican ticket can help motivate the base, which has been discouraged for several reasons: Bush's poor polling, perceived lack of progress in Iraq, the immigration and earmarks debates, and the statewide candidates' presumed poor prospects.
1. Posted by Jim Addison | August 31, 2006 12:25 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 31, 2006 00:25