Welcome to the only race in the country where Republicans will take a seat from the Dememocrats. Tom Kean better get ready for the minority in the U.S. Senate.

Jonny C. I can't see any scenario where Kean wins yet the Republicans lose the Senate. The Democrats need to get +6 while holding all of their seats. If they lose NJ, they need to make up that seat elsewhere. Supposing Chafee, Santorum, Burns, Talent, DeWine (all possible) and Allen (unlikely) all lose, the R's still hold the Sentate then (50-48-2 tie break to the VP).

That's correct. Dems will take the House but not the Senate. Tom Kean will win this race by the slimmest of margins, but the GOP could easily lose 20-30 seats in the House.

but the GOP could easily lose 20-30 seats in the House
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At some point you dreamers are going to have to actually LOOK AT AN ELECTORAL MAP and remember that we will not be drawing a random number in lottery-style fashion as to how many (X) seats the GOP loses in the Fall.

You have to win individual districts, candidate by candidate. There is no possible way one could look at the map now and see anywhere near a 30-seat pickup for Democrats.

Frankly, it is harder and harder to see them gaining double digits - even if everything falls right for them.

David Kronenberg might be able to film a sequel to 'Scanners' on election night when the actual results come in and heads begin to explode on the left.

To add further, Scott at Election Projection sees 35 competitive seats (out of 435). He has the GOP losing 8, and not gaining a single one - so one can hardly argue he is being partisan in his analysis.

Of those 35, 7 are competitive with a Democrat already in the seat.

So assume the Dems hold every one of those seven, then that leaves 28 seats. Surely, nobody can argue credibly that the GOP loses each of these seats - especially when one takes the time to look at the specific races, polling data (as available) and overall tenor of the state (red or blue).

And of course, nobody credible is making that argument - lose 8-10 seats, absolutely possible. 20-30 seats..not a chance.

Yes, if Kean wins, there won't be any chance of a Democratic Senate.

It's too soon to give up on many of these incumbents, too. DeWine and Burns caused a lot of their own problems, but both are blessed with opposition that is from the extreme left. If they can highlight their opponents, they can pull their races out.

Similarly, Santorum has a spectacularly weak opponent. His chances should not be underestimated. Talent and Chaffee have the benefit of incumbency working for them.

Our chances in NJ are reasonable, but we also have - admittedly more difficult - shots at Cantwell, Stabenow, and the open seats in Maryland and Minnesota.

All else being equal - and we know events can change any or all of these races overnight - the Senate isn't particularly at risk this time around. Republican candidates also tend to close better than predicted by polls.