Well, I think that Gonzales poll had to be wrong - Mfume with 15% of the black vote? He was a long-term congressman and President of the NAACP, for crying out loud.

Primary turnouts are always iffy in midterm elections. Even in general and Presidential campaigns, turnout strategies have become crucial in recent years.

Frankly, I'd be surprised if Mfume doesn't pull this one out, even though he is certainly still a slight underdog. The resulting Mfume-Steele campaign will be tight and interesting, and will attract national attention.

I think previous midterm turnout results used for this year are likely to be off. The state is 30% black. There seems to be a great deal of "why isn't it our turn" involved, which could drive up black voter turn out. Any softness in Cardin's turnout is likely to be disasterous for him if the black turnout is above average.

I think Steele might enjoy some lift from a Cardin victory from black voters. But I think the GOP would benefit most from a Mfume-Steele match up. It would take race off the table since whihever gets elected is going to be of the same race. But it allows for two different views of the world to be aired. One view says you are not in control of your life, beauracrats will exercise that control. The other says that government is not the solution and may be the source of your problems.

There is a lot of racial tension in this race. Democrats have never nominated an african-american statewide candidate. And here the Republicans not only elected a black Lt. Gov., but have now nominated him for the Senate (coupled with nominating black candidates for Governor in PA and OH). With a population that is 30% black and a close association with the Democrat party, you'd expect there to be some feeling of "where's mine?" in this.

There are advantages for Steele in both results. With some important support from black cultural figures like Russell Simmons, a Steele-Cardin matchup will certainly mean that Steele will attract a larger share of the black vote and will have allies in getting his message to that community.

On the other hand a Steele-Mfume matchup would still leave Steele with the support of Simmons and others and a strong position in getting black voters to give a Republican a second look, and would also help his support among some white voters (who have been shown to be somewhat wary of Mfume due to a perception of his tenure at the NAACP being controversial).

I'll actually be very interested to see how the governor race interacts with the Senate race and whether there will be any "coattails" for either Ehrlich or Steele from the other.