You may think that Tarrant has gubernatorial prospects, but the 40% number you cite is all too familiar to VT conservatives. It's the best any self-identified conservative can be expected to poll here in VT. Ask Ruth Dwyer about this phenomenon.

Tarrant's nationally-funded attack ads, while correct, are not playing well here. We here in VT are much happier with the Mom, Apple Pie, and State Fair style of campaign ads. Slick attack ads are a whole new thing up here and have not polled well.

Rainville is no conservative; she's openly questioned Iraq policy and wishes to limit the deployment of state National Guard troops to Iraq and similar theatres of operation.

Jim Douglas, while a titular Republican, is no conservative. That actually gives him a chance in a statewide race for Leahy's seat.

Oh, BTW, I've lived in VT my entire life, all 42 years of it. I can guaran-fucking-tee that a no-holds-barred fire-breathing conservative will top out at 40% on his/her best day. To win in VT as a Republican, you need to pick up votes from that part of the Democratic electorate that has not already drunk the Kos Kool-Aid. Here in VT, that's about 3 voters.

I have known all along that the house race was competitive. This poll from ARG and there earlier one just confirmed it.
I think Douglas would probably win a Senate race in 2010 if Leahy retires and maybe even if he dosen't retire.
I think it is a miracle that Tarrant is behind by only 15 points. In January Rasmussen released a poll that had sanders leading 70-20.
What this shows is that Vermont is still as Republican as it was in the 80's the Republicans just went to far to the Right. In 1980 No state had gone Republican as many times as Vermont had.
Remember all GOP presidential nominees since 92 have been Right-wingers.
This Senate up this year has not been held by Democrat since before the Civil War and with a two year exception the same for the house seat

I have just returmned to Georgia from a wonderful week-long vacation touring Vermont. I loved your state, its scenery and its gracious people- - especially those in your capitol- - and your capitol house- - in Montpelier. I must confess, though, that I am baffled by the polling numbers which show Mr. Sanders so far ahead of Mr.Tarrant, because it seems to me to be a slap in the face to Vermont Democrats for Mr Sanders to win their primary and then reject their label. I understand that there is much I do not know about Vermont politics, but I believe if that happend in Georgia there would be a landslide backlash. Somebody elucidate me!