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2006 Ohio Governor and Senate Race

Another poll in Ohio reports that Democrat Tim Strickland has now taken a commanding lead over Republican Ken Blackwell. The Columbus Despatch Poll has Strickland leading by 19. In the Senate race, Sherrod Brown leads Republican incumbent Mike DeWine by 5 points. However, I would take this poll with a high degree of caution because it is a poll of state residents, not registered or likely voters.

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Comments (3)

The article claims it was o... (Below threshold)

The article claims it was of registered voters: "The poll of 1,791 randomly selected registered Ohio voters was taken Sept. 9 through Friday. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points."

Polls of registered, as opposed to likely, voters tend to favor Democrats, but not so much as polls of "all adults" do. My big objection to this poll is that it was taken over too long a period: 14 days. One problem is that the early respondents didn't have access to more recent developments and news which might affect their choices. Another is it encompasses two full weekend periods, which are known to yield samples overloaded with Democratic respondents.

Acknowledging the built-in bias towards Democrats, it is probably a fairly accurate picture of the race if adjusted for that oversampling: Blackwell is far behind, due to the Taft legacy, while DeWine is closing on Brown as more people become aware of Brown's far-left history.

had DeWine gotten a bit mor... (Below threshold)
Ironman:

had DeWine gotten a bit more in rouch with grassroots sentiment on judges and immigration he would have had no problem with Brown. Evidently McCain lite is more popular in DC than OH

Well said Ironman. While s... (Below threshold)
Ken Hupp:

Well said Ironman. While someone who lives in Ohio, might have more information, it does seem that DeWine's problems began when he joined McCain's gang of 14, and subsequently hitched his wagon to the media's favorite Republican on other issues like immigration. If he loses, and I hope he doesn't, I'll be interested to see whether his association with McCain receives the blame it would rightfully deserve. My hunch is that it won't, because the media doesn't want to destroy McCain until after he gets the 2008 GOP nomination, which fortunately won't happen. The situation with Blackwell really breaks my heart. I think this guy would be a superstar if he were to get in, but it looks like Governor Taft has completely destroyed his chances.

Ken




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