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Pennsylvania 7th CD - Weldon's toughest race

Curt Weldon, the incumbent Republican, is serving his 20th year in Congress, but has never faced a challenge like the one this year from Vice Adm. (ret) Joe Sestak. The Democrat has been able to raise enough money to stay competitive, and the race is just that: the latest Keystone Poll, completed Thursday, shows Sestak with a one-point lead - a statistical dead heat. The details are HERE in PDF format.

One wonders about the results, though. The poll reports 58% Republican registration, and only 29% have a favorable opinion of Sestak (50% have none at all), yet he attracts 44% support. It seems there must be a good bit of anti-Weldon (or anti-Bush) mood in the district to get such numbers.

Still it is a bit soon to write Weldon's political obituary - although Shane Harris of the National Journal pens a profile which sounds a lot like one.

This contest is rated "tossup" by almost everybody.

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Comments (2)

Well, remember that Nationa... (Below threshold)
eddiebear:

Well, remember that National Journal is in tight with Charlie Cook, who is in tight with MSNBC and Chris Matthews. That should give you some idea of why NJ is reporting the way they do.

How is it that a poll from a GOP group just a week or so ago showed a 20% lead that has evaporated? I know that partisan polling groups should always have a 5% B.S. factor incorporated into their findings, but a drop like that in just a few weeks? That's almost macacca like.

I never believed that outli... (Below threshold)

I never believed that outlier poll at all. This race is certainly winnable, but it will be close one way or the other.




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