A new Mason-Dixon poll out tonight in Tennessee shows Harold Ford, Jr. leading Bob Corker 43% to 42%.
On the surface that would sound like bad news for Corker, but the internals of the poll give us much ground for hope. First, the poll sample was 38% R, 34% D. However, in 2004, the turnout was 40%, 32% D. Readjusting, Corker would lead 44% to 41%. Moreover, Ford has maxed out support from Democrats and African-American. On the other hand, many of the undecideds are Republicans and Independents.
Finally, the past month has been very bad for Corker. Ford has run what has generally been perceived as an aggressive campaign while Corker's has been criticized for being adrift. Corker needs to go on the offensive and win over those undecideds, which, if history is any indication, are voters that lean more to him than Ford.
That said, Republicans now have seven extremely vulnerable Senate seats they need to defend this November. It's going to be a tough October.
Update: It looks like Corker is getting the right idea.
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2006 Senate Race
Comments (4)
In the M-D poll, there are ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | October 1, 2006 3:05 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
In the M-D poll, there are some puzzling results. For instance, Ford is adjudged better capable of handling Iraq issues by a slight margin, and better on energy issues by a slightly greater margin. Yet Corker is dead even on handling the economy.
Of course, we don't know how many calls or interviews it took for Mason-Dixon to get their 600+ sample, "all of which are likely voters."
Heh.
It's good news that Corker is bringing in some seasoned hands, especially the top Alexander aide. The Democrats are perfectly entitled to gloat about Corker's troubles which necessitated the move, but better they gloat now and cry later.
I wouldn't argue that Ford isn't the better man. In a perfect world where Senators voted autonomously without party pressures, he would probably be a better Senator than Corker. We live in a real world, though, not a perfect one. Ford would carry the water for the party in the Senate, as he usually does in the House. Corker will do the same, but he will be toting for the good guys.
1. Posted by Jim Addison | October 1, 2006 3:05 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 1, 2006 03:05
2. Posted by RB | October 1, 2006 3:44 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The good guys being those who covered up a sex crime against a minor for a year?
2. Posted by RB | October 1, 2006 3:44 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 1, 2006 15:44
3. Posted by Soupy2c2 | October 1, 2006 5:15 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The good guys being those who covered up a sex crime against a minor for a year?
Posted by: RB at October 1, 2006 03:44 PM
Maybe I am Misunderstanding the above comment. Because it brings to mind another "abuse of power" from another party.
3. Posted by Soupy2c2 | October 1, 2006 5:15 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 1, 2006 17:15
4. Posted by CTindy | October 2, 2006 12:54 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Atleast Clinton's transgressions didn't involve a minor like Foleys did which makes what Foley did worse than what Clinton did.
4. Posted by CTindy | October 2, 2006 12:54 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 2, 2006 00:54