There is some very good news for the Republican Party tonight as a new SurveyUSA poll shows Republican Bob Corker pulling ahead of Democrat Harold Ford. Corker leads 48% to 46%. In the previous poll, Ford led 48% to 45%.
"Where is the movement? In Western TN, Ford had let by 24 points, now trails by 1, a 25-point swing. Among middle income voters, who earn between $40K per year and $80K per year, the candidates had been tied; now Corker is up by 11. Among voters who earn more than $80K per year, there is offsetting movement away from Corker. Today, 81% of Democrats vote Democrat. 84% of Republicans vote Republican. Independents break 6:5 for the Democrat. Black turnout is critical to the outcome of this contest. Corker leads by 7 among whites, who make up 84% of TN Likely Voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Ford, an African American, leads by 47 points among black voters, who make up 13% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. There is some movement among black voters to Corker. In general, a higher black turnout helps Ford. A lower black turnout helps Corker. But: every black voter who votes Republican makes the climb that much more uphill for Ford. There is a 22-point Gender Gap in today's data: Corker leads by 12 among males. Ford leads by 10 among females. Incumbent Republican Senator Bill Frist is not running for re-election. This open seat is critical for the Democrats' hopes of regaining control of the U.S. Senate."
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2006 Senate Race
Comments (5)
Maybe the Ford families cri... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Scrapiron | October 10, 2006 7:29 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Maybe the Ford families criminal record is spreading out from Memphis. Why anyone would want a member of that family to hold office any higher than dog catcher is beyond me.
1. Posted by Scrapiron | October 10, 2006 7:29 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2006 19:29
2. Posted by Ken Hupp | October 10, 2006 9:50 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
This polling data along with the other three on house races from Survey USA is a much-needed shot in the arm of good news. After 10 days of Foley gate and the media orgasmically proclaiming the Democrats have won the house and senate, this is the kind of news we needed to see. I'm making my contributions this week and hope others will do so as well. Fight hard till the end, don't give up like the media wants us to do and we can hold both the house and senate.
Ken
2. Posted by Ken Hupp | October 10, 2006 9:50 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2006 21:50
3. Posted by eddiebear | October 11, 2006 12:06 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I have relatives who live in the Bootheel of MO (I've heard all of the jokes, BTW!). Across the Mississippi River is Dyersburg, TN. Memphis is not too far away. Those two cities dominate W. Tenn. We all know about Memphis, but Dyersburg, while rural, has a heavy concentration of rural African Americans, who tend to be Democrat, but not as stridently as in Memphis. If Ford can't carry Dyersburg, he is in big trouble.
3. Posted by eddiebear | October 11, 2006 12:06 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 11, 2006 00:06
4. Posted by Vero | October 11, 2006 12:26 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Company that I do some Freelnace work for, moved to Franklin TN in the past year, all very, very conservatives, for the most part, who had relocated from Central California - They brought with them over 30 families. There is a ton of new voters coming into the state, most of them from companies wanting to get away from California and most of them aint Liberal voters.
They are sick of left-wing politics from their ole State and you can bet your bottom dollar that Ford will not get even 20% of those voters
4. Posted by Vero | October 11, 2006 12:26 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 11, 2006 00:26
5. Posted by Conservachef | October 11, 2006 11:54 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I watch a Memphis news station, and I have to say, the Republican Senatorial committee has put out some effective commercials painting Ford as (a)Against national security, (b)Against border security, and (c)A hypocrite regarding morals. (Partying with playboy bunnies and then filming a commercial from a churcy.)
And that's all in just one commercial! Another one has him taking more privately-funded personal junkets than Whiskey Ted and Mizz Clinton combined, all the while missing 365 votes.
They are doing a fairly good job of painting Ford as a poor option. What I haven't seen, is them going the distance to show why Corker IS a good choice. (But then, I may have just missed those commercials.)
5. Posted by Conservachef | October 11, 2006 11:54 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 11, 2006 23:54