It will be a rough road to convince the American people who are stone cold deaf and dum that the economy is good. Even with all of the available information a lot of people believe the lies told them by the left wing anti-american antique MSM.

People aren't even smart enough to see that the democrats have nothing to offer but are trying to win with slime and slander. No plan what ever for the country. "We'll do it better is not a plan", and support for the terrorists is not a plan for the country, unless you are on the side of some other country.

I'm upbeat about the country because everything in the economy is fine, but get depressed when I see that all the democrats possess is 'Hate' for the President, Hate for the Men and Women of the Military, Hate for the country, and they spread the hate like a deadly disease, actually it will turn out to be as deadly as any disease that has ever been known to man.

Lying about anything and everthing has became such a habit of the left that they can no longer tell when they're lying themselves.

I just hope the paleocon/Malkin/Polipundit wing doesn't sit out to hurt the GOP. No doubt that Foley hurt our chances and took us off message, but now is the time to counterattack.

I just hoe the forthcoming news that Scott at electionprojection.com keeps hyping isn't bad. Sadly, he seems to be listening too much to Charlie Cook and his Constituent Dynamics Company polls. Lorie, can you talk to Scott and ask him to ignore Cook?

Reading that story, it obviously pained the Post to write it, and they went out of their way to try and discredit it. I've long viewed this as a 1998 type election, not 1994. With a roaring economy, the stock market and consumer confidence soaring, gas prices plummeting and the nation at war, but not attacked again for over 5 years, voters at the end of the day will want a reason to vote "for" somebody. Had the Democrats provided voters with a positive, compelling agenda, I would expect them to ride this Media "Jihad" against Republicans. Lacking one,
along with a comparable GOTV operation to what the GOP has, I expect them to come up short of capturing either the House or Senate.

Ken

Fortunately, Scrappy, we don't have to depend upon "the American people" figuring out the truth of the economy. It's only those who show up at the polls who need concern us, and our GOTV effort will be tested this year.

eddiebear, I don't think Scott considers the other pundits at all. He operates with a formula based on the averages of the most recent polls available, the recent history of the district or state, and a slight influence of events perceived to have an effect. Only the latter is subjective, and it doesn't constitute a large part of his ratings.

one problem we have is that good news doesn't seem to have any impact in slowing the opposition

In my district (CT 5) the Dems started the race as a referendum on the supposedly flawed Medicare drug plan; then shifted to gas prices; and now are just launching personal attacks. In a "normal" election year this would cause their candidate to sink and get defunded, naw, they just send him more money

eddiebear, we Polis are not going to sit out the election.

While we (although I don't presume to speak for everyone-especially the trolls) are ticked off as anyone at how the GOP leadership has bungled issues like amnesty for aliens, we also know that Dem control of the House means endless hearings by the likes of John Conyers and Alcee Hastings. Dem control of the Senate means Teddy blocks judicial nominees, especially SCOTUS.

Limp Frist will be gone in January 2007. We want to replace him with McConnell, not Harry Reid. Hastert is most likely out, but we'd like to see a GOP leader with backbone and conservative principles, not Pelosi, as Speaker.

GOP bloggers have more issues in common than they have differences, and a joint GOP bloggger effort, combined with Rove's GOTV machine, could hold both houses.

I remember how bad the first exit polls were in 2004, but every time I went to Polipundit, there was Lorie telling everyone not to get discouraged, but to GOTV. We can do it again if we all work together.

I am surprised that so many (esp. conservatives) still get influenced so much each election cycle about what those with bias tell us. For example, liberals put out polls that make themselves feel good, then those like El. Projection then averages those flawed polls, and we tend to put stock because it's Scott. This is a recipe to get things wrong.

The exit polls for 2004 were so obviously wrong and non-sensical that it shouldn't have produced the serious worry that it did for many. For example, I think the exit poll even had Wyoming competitive for a while -- now tell me -- how much insight into elections does someone really have when they are worried that Wyoming was close for 2004 between the President and Kerry? When the Dems say that Republicans are "easily led", I think it's laughable -- but it may be true when it is liberals trying to mislead us.

WE ARE NOT GOING TO LOSE THE HOUSE. The Senate is such a foregone conclusion that it's not even worth talking about (see "Wyoming" above).

Don't even look at Virginia and Tennessee anymore. It is not competitive.

Ohio will probably still remain Republican.

Montana will probably still remain Republican.

New Jersey may flip for us.

Pennsylvania may flip, but we are seriously competitive there. This is our most vulnerable, and I say we have a 50/50 shot.

We will fail to gain Florida, but not because of Dems. If we had started with a strong and united backing of Harris, I think we had a better than 50/50 shot there.

I would like to see a poll with the question, "Have you ever lied to a pollster?"

Of course, the results themselves would be suspect.

I wonder how many people are so polled out that they consider them a joke.

I'm sorry I forgot about Missouri. This race is not competitive either. It can be taken off the map.

Jim Addison mentioned Alekhine yesterday. Alekhine did indeed shock the world in 1927 by beating Capablanca, but did not do it "handily". It was a marathon match of 34 games. Alekhine also took a page out of the Dems playbook in gentlemanly behavior -- he never allowed Capablanca the customary re-match. When Alekhine himself lost the title in 1935, the gentlemanly Euwe quickly offered him a re-match, which Alekhine won in 1937.

My favorite champion, and the one I think the GOP should emulate in terms of attacking agressiveness, is the incomparable Mikhail Tal.

nehemiah,

I agree with you that we will keep both the House and Senate. But when you say that Tennessee and Missouri are no longer competitive, are you basing it on any particular poll or just instinct (my instinct tells me the same thing, especially in Virginia. Allen will win by 8-12 points).

I think we all need to remember the bogus exit polls in 2004 and not let that deter the voters out west from voting no matter what they hear in the news.

I'm also noticing the conservative media starting to write articles about how bad it's going to be for the GOp, presumbably to cover their own butts if it happens that way. Fred Barnes is the latest to do it in his article today. While I respect people like him, it's a good reminder that even among conservatives there is a difference in attitude between those inside the beltway, and those outside it.

Thank you all. The ridiculous gloom of the conservtive commentariat has made me angry and you have reenergized my optimism. Talk about falling for exactly what the Democrats want: depressed turnout. They know that is the only way to win in a midterm election. And so many of the sheep are happy to follow along blindly. Such foolish children.

Apparently life for republicans these days is much more pleasant if you ignore the truth...

(emphasis added, with enthusiasm)

Category 5 Hurricane Heads for House GOP

Let's get the disclaimer out of the way: there are 25 days between now and the November 7 election and things could well change, making what follows obsolete.

That said, this is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974. I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election. This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like.

Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans.

kirktoe,

I am not basing the conclusions on Missouri or Tennessee on any specific poll. I do still of course pay attention to the polls and try to ingest them with a grain of salt -- given the history of the state, candidate, and the current election season. Tennesee is currently a solid Republican state (even with a Dem. Governor -- CA and MA have R governors, though TN is less red than those are blue) and Ford cannot win it this year. Most polls until fairly recently showed this.

Missouri has a solid incumbent in Talent and though it will probably be close (like it usually is in Missouri), Talent will win.

Virginia is the most certain of the three. If we're going to be talking about Allen, we should be talking about Feingold in Wisconsin. But no one is talking about Wisconsin.

Of course I can be wrong -- if I were a prophet I would be "Isiah" and not "Nehemiah". Nehemiah was a fighter and a builder. He rebuilt Jerusalem while defending the reconstruction from the enemies -- he built with one hand while having a sword to defend with the other.

Let me say only one thing about Lee's post above. It is from Cook.

It's easy when your enemies make the point for you.

Lee:

I find it funny that after I spent time making fun of how biased Charlie Cook and his C.D. polls are, you copy and paste an article from him. He was soooooo wrong in 2002 and 2004, yet since he is a darling of the DC Cocktail Party Circuit, he still gets love from them.

Cook is nothing but a political hack.

Actually Lee,

As to who is actually "ignoring truth" -- I would like to propose a wager with everyone here present. And either of us could use this thread after the election to demonstrate the character of either of us (to make sure the wager sticks).

If the Dems take over the House, I'll be gone from all of Wizbang (I may read, but I will never again post).

If the Dems don't, then you agree not to post any further anywhere on Wizbang.

Care to take the wager?

Wethal:

hate to say it, but "The Incident" over at polipundit that led to Lorie, DJ and Alex coming here caused me to stop reading his site.

I just can't get over how he, Malkin and many members of National Review want to punish the House for what the Senate did.

eddiebear,

I'm also one who stopped reading Polipundit after "The Incident". In fact, I was blocked for several days prior to the official "incident" -- I suspect for strongly supporting DJ in several of his posts.

I agree that we need to be much much much more effective at stopping illegal immigration, but the truth is that President Bush has been an outstanding president and doesnt deserve the treatment he has gotten from liberals nor conservatives. We owe him much gratitude.

Lee,

Since you seem to be at church service, let me take the opportunity to amend the wager (it's for your sake, as I don't want you to be gone forever). Let's make it one year where we cannot post -- that way you can be back to post for the 2008 elections -- I know that you want to tell us about what a genius Hillary is -- miliatry, healthcare, village reform, how to maintain the optimal marriage, etc.

eddiebear, no one at Poli want to punish the House. We know how important it is to hold it.

The "Incident" is water under the bridge. DJ comes over now and then to comment. He's welcome, and so are you.

There have been some missteps from the White House over the years (Instapundit has a rundown: Meirs, etc.), but no one want to see Mr. Bush with a Dem House or Senate, or God forbid, both Dem.

Lee did you cut and paste that into every Wizbang thread or just the two in which I happened the read the comments? Calm down buddy-the election isn't for a while yet.Count your chickens after it is over.

A lot of Poli-refugees have found other places to roost. The whole attitude over there has changed and I, for one, won't likely be back. I was never a big Malkin fan; she is a little too full of herself.

I am not overly optimistic about the election but refuse to fall for the downbeat of the MSM. Virginia should be fine, I think Tenn will come through and Missouri - well, time will tell.

Polls are for donks and have been skewed to favor them or whichever liberal cause is currently in vogue. My rule of thumb is to add 8 points to the Republican in any Likely Voter poll and ignore the rest, (I'm in Texas and donks lose decisively here).......I do enjoy my Liberal friends spouting polls though. I like to remind them all their polls and MSM cheerleading was supposed to win them Randy "Duke" Cunnigham's district too.

I agree with Jimmy. It's all part of the modern day propaganda. The MSM has been very good this election cycle with the constant drum beat of negative Republican stories, as though there were no successes, while giving the Dems a free ride for having no agenda other than they hate Bush.

Keep pushing the good news Lori.

Wethal:

I appreciate the invite back. I quit posting in 2005 after my daughter was born, though I still read the site. I may give it a shot, but I do find it interesting that Lorie and this site have received at least two (if my memory serves me) mentions on Rush's show, while Poli's new band of posters ahve received zilch. I guess the fact that while it is Poli's site, his petulance reminds me of what Malkin has been like since 2005. But Lorie, Alex and DJ have a good home here, and I can attest their traffic has increased by at least 1 (namely, me) since "The Incident".

Also, I don't recall any of Poli's new band of posters getting the invite to the White House Ace, Ham, NZ Bear and others received. I had to laugh when Allahpundit and Perpetual Embarassment Malkin whined that they weren't on the list. I guess openly trying to undermine the administration while at the same time bemoaning the attacks on the troops from clowns like Murtha became too much. People like Malkin and Allah need to realize that they will be helping Murtha attack the troops by sitting out. As my tagline at redstate.com states, "sitting out is a vote for Kos."

Thanks, Lorie!

I keep trying to remain optimistic, just like I did in 2000, 2002 and 2004 (I remember trying to talk people off the ledges in the PoliPundit threads that last year - I was completely confident, despite those ridiculous "exit polls", that we had won), but when even some of my fellow conservatives start sounding so glum, it grates on my nerves a bit. A little bit of sunlight shining in on the gloom every now and then helps.

Now, let's all get back out there and win another one for the Gipper!

It would be a pretty thought if Democrats were weakening the Republican candidates for the mid term election. Boy, those sneaky Democrats. They spew hate, and don't fight fair, the godless commies. Anyway, it would ba a pretty thought if it were true.

The Republican Candidates are their own worst enemy. Let's look at what Republican leaders have been up to over just the last 2 years.

Bill Frist, (who took over for disgraced Republican Trent Lott), becomes involved campaign finance improprities, then insider trading of his families multi-billion HCA health care conglomerate.

Bush administraton outs CIA agent Valerie Plame, Scooter Libby, chief of staff for the Vice President is indicted for perjury and steps down. In spite of official denials, others close to the scandal were determined to be Dick Cheney and Karl Rove.

Torture photos from Abu Ghraib involve the White House in prisoner abuse scandal. Bush claims the US "does not tortue". At the same time, Dick Cheney lobbies congress to permit the torture of prisoners. Secret prisons uncovered, US found to have turned over prisioners to other countries who also conduct torture.

The Republican House Leader Tom DeLay repremanded twice, then indicted, and resignes in disgrace.

Bernie Kerik, Bush nominee for Secretary of Homeland Security withdraws from considertation over ethics improprieties.

Bush administration caught paying journalists Armstrong Williams, Maggie Gallagher and Michael McManus to produce bogus news articles as government propaganda. Journalism as propaganda was also promoted in Iraq. Jeff Gannon gets extrodinary access to White House to produce slanted news coverage. Gannon found to be operating a male prostitution ring.

Downing Street Memo from Brittish Government leaked in 2005 shows Bush was determined to twist intelegence to support military action in Iraq prior to start of war.

Randy Duke Cunningham, pleads guilty to bribary, fraud, and tax evasion, and is sentenced to jail. Admits to receiving 2.4 million in bribes.

Jack Abramoff, tied to many republican congressmen, and a key figure in the Tom DeLay scandal is indicted on wire fraud.

Representative Bob Ney pleades guilty to conspiracy in Abramoff affair, faces 10 years in prison, drops out of election race, but refuses to resign from Congress to keep pension and benefits.

Michael Scanlon found guilty in a 20 million influence peddling and bribary scandal. David Vitter (R-LA), Eric Cantor (R-VA), John Doolittle (R-CA), J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ), Don Young (R-AK), among others are implicated. Scanlon was also famous for the following remark about segments of the Republican base, similar to Karl Rove's recent statements.
"The wackos get their information through the Christian right, Christian radio, mail, the internet and telephone trees ... Simply put, we want to bring out the wackos to vote against something and make sure the rest of the public lets the whole thing slip past them.".

Ralph Reed and Grover Norquist along with Jack Abramoff under grand jury investigation for stealing money from legal clients.

Abramoff/DeLay tied to Commenwealth of Marinias Island scandal over labor violations, forced prostitution, forced abortion scandal.

Bush admits to wiretapping in violation of FISA court rules, a violation of US law.

Mark Foley resigns from Congress over allogations of pedophilia via sexualy explicited emails and instant messages.

House Speaker Dennis Hastert seen as inactive over GOP scandals including Ney and Foley scandals, pressured to resign.

Representative Curt Weldon (R-PA) currently under FBI probe for alegedly stearing 1 million dollars in government contracts to daughter.

This is just a list of the stuff that's been going on in the LAST TWO YEARS. It's not even a full list. Republicans have been very, very busy indeed, and it's not busy helping you or I. They've been busy lining their own pockets. If that's the kind of representative government you want, keep voting them in.

For your convienience, here's a handy list of Repulicans, currently in office, that you've seen in the press for various alleged deeds of corruption. They need your money, and your vote now more than ever. You can expect you'll be seeing them again, (perhaps in mug shots) so you might want to keep this list handy.

Members of the Senate:

Conrad Burns (R-MT)
Bill Frist (R-TN)
Rick Santorum (R-PA)

Members of the House:

Roy Blunt (R-MO)
Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO)
Ken Calvert (R-CA)
Richard Pombo (R-CA)
John Doolittle (R-CA)
Rick Renzi (R-AZ)
Tom Feeney (R-FL)
Pete Sessions (R-TX)
Katherine Harris (R-FL)
John Sweeney (R-NY)
Charles Taylor (R-NC)
Jerry Lewis (R-CA)
Gary Miller (R-CA)
Curt Weldon (R-PA)

Other Members to Watch:

Chris Cannon (R-UT)
J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ)
Dennis Hastert (R-IL)
Don Sherwood (R-PA)

Anyway, it's pretty apparent that the Democrats could not have pulled this off on their own. The sad fact is that the Republican is incredibly corrupt, and control of Congress needs to be more ballanced for the good of the Nation.

John

John: "the Republican is incredibly corrupt, and control of Congress needs to be more ballanced[sic] for the good of the Nation."

LOL, and your solution, even if that slimy accusation were true, is to give control to the DEMOCRATS?!?!?!?!?!

All I have to do to prove how wrong you are, is to simply mention THE NAME:

Harry Reid

'nuff said.