The first poll taken of this district after Foley's resignation comports with the prevailing wisdom: the Democratic nominee, Tim Mahoney, leads in this predominately Republican district, as reported by the Associated Press:
The Democratic candidate running for the House seat once held by Mark Foley has a slim lead over a Republican rival, according to a newspaper poll published Sunday.
Democrat Tim Mahoney led Republican state Rep. Joe Negron 48 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided, according to the poll commissioned by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers.
The most interesting bit of info occurs later in the article:
According to the poll, 71 percent, including two-thirds of Democrats, said the scandal would have "no effect" on whether they would cast ballots for Mahoney on Nov. 7. And 72 percent said the page scandal would not influence their voting patterns in other races.
Read the whole article at the above link. Oh, COME ON, people! Telling me that 71% of respondents said the Foley scandal would have NO EFFECT on their vote, while simultaneously showing a lead for the Democrat, who was considered an "also-ran" before the scandal, tells me something is wrong in this survey.
Mahoney - the Democratic candidate in question - has scandals of his own, as we have recently noted . There is no way he leads in this district UNLESS the scandal has had an effect on the voters' preferences.
Jeb Bush is campaigning hard for Negron. I say we hold the seat.
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Congressional Races, Florida, Polls
Comments (1)
If I'm not mistaken, the po... (Below threshold)1. Posted by eddiebear | October 17, 2006 8:43 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
If I'm not mistaken, the poll didn't release its internals. If that is indeed true, then this poll should be suspect.
1. Posted by eddiebear | October 17, 2006 8:43 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 17, 2006 08:43