I have been rather busy lately and unable to post much, but I do have a few words on recent developments.
1. President Bush, who had climbed to 45% has fallen below 40%. He needs to get back to 45% if we are to have a fighting chance on election day. There is no way we can win if he is down at around 35%. Not responding to Woodward and getting it out there that he made it all up allowed Woodward to troll his nonsense unchallenged.
2. For both the President, and Republican candidates, it isn't a question of securing the male vote. That remains a strength for the President and Republican candidates - even in Pennsylvania, Lynn Swann leads Ed Rendell among men. The problem for us is that the female vote and the independent vote has completely collapsed. In the final three weeks, the White House and the Republican Party need to focus their efforts on bringing back independent female voters. Doing so is crucial and necessary if we are to keep our elections to a minimum.
How do we do that? The President has to take the initiative on Iraq. Making it seem that we are not stuck in netural and bound to a stay-the-course strategy is necessary. It also means the President and Republican candidates need to focus on domestic issues - discussing how our policies have resulted in strong economic growth. In other words, minimize the discussion of the war, maximize the discussion of the economy.



Comments (8)
AndrewHow do you p... (Below threshold)1. Posted by GOPWins | October 18, 2006 3:18 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Andrew
How do you propose winning back women and independents that we've purportedly lost?
1. Posted by GOPWins | October 18, 2006 3:18 PM |
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Posted on October 18, 2006 15:18
2. Posted by Florence Schmieg | October 18, 2006 4:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I know this goes against the conventional wisdom but I don't see why President Bush has to be the one to save the Republican congress. Lord knows they have only been of minimal help to him, especially the Senate. Since their approval rating is in the 20s and Rasmussen has Bush at 43 today, he should run away from THEM, not the other way around. And people who say Bush needs to say more about Iraq must have hearing loss. That's all he talks about most days. Why does he have to carry the entire war on terror on his shoulders alone? The Republicans owe their current majority in the Senate to his coattails in 2004. And now they want to run away??
2. Posted by Florence Schmieg | October 18, 2006 4:17 PM |
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Posted on October 18, 2006 16:17
3. Posted by Dallas | October 18, 2006 6:01 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Why do we keep acting like losers? I'm weary...and will pull the lever for a straight Republican ticket...have worked hard in Texas for the party...and I'm just sick of all the "Debbie Downers" out there. (I'm talking about the "Ned No's") too...by the way, It's the guys that are so pessimistic. Put your boots on guys and quit whinning. You make us hard working girl conservatives queazy.
Geeze folks...what's the deal? Can't you smell the coffee? We're all goners if the Dems get in.
By the way...I'm from the state that houses Ross Perrot...you know...the one who delivered Bill Clinton on a platter...for EIGHT years. Oh yes, that was fun.
Wake up!!!
3. Posted by Dallas | October 18, 2006 6:01 PM |
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Posted on October 18, 2006 18:01
4. Posted by nehemiah | October 18, 2006 6:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Also, the "teach the Republicans a lesson" crowd need to have their own history lesson.
Did getting a Stalin teach the Russians a lesson? They didn't afterward elect a conservative -- they kept getting more communists.
Did gettin Kim Il-Sung teach the NoKos to then elect a conservative? They now have nutso Kim Jong-Il.
Mao Tse Dong then another commie.
You might say, those people didn't get to then choose afterward (at least not in a fair manner). Well, don't be so obtuse. If you were a Dem, and you got in power, what would you do. I'll tell you what I would do:
I would proclaim that the poor, minorities, and the young are being disenfranchised since they are not voting in as large a percentage. I would launch a "People's voting affirmative action initiative". It would consist of government election workers phoning all minorities (or those under 21 or receiving welfare, or . . . you get the idea) on election day and ask who they want to be their senator, A) DEMOCRAT Mr. John Entitlement, or B)republican Luke Tightass. Their answer (since this is a disenfranchised group) under this initiative would be counted as a legal vote.
All you need is something like that. The U.S., and all of us here, are then done for.
4. Posted by nehemiah | October 18, 2006 6:24 PM |
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Posted on October 18, 2006 18:24
5. Posted by kirktoe | October 18, 2006 9:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Alexander,
I respectfully disagree with you:
1 - Bush is not below 40%. What you are seeing is the MSM doing push polls to make it APPEAR that way. That Newsweek poll that showed him at 33% is a joke. Rasmussen has had him anywhere from 40-44 the last 2 weeks. Not great to be sure but not as serious as you indicate. Besides, if Bush awas such a liability, then why is he out campaigning everywhere? Remember all those stories during the spring and summer about how Senators and Congressman would run away from Bush? Not happening.
2 - You are falling for the old trap that Republicans need the Independent vote in order to win. We don't. What we need is a high turnout from the GOP base, which is what Rove and Mehlman have correctly done the last 2 election cycles and are doing again. I just read that the GOP is exceeding their goal on volunteers and contacts with the base.
===========================================
I'm with the others here that are getting irritated at the pessimism that is spreading among "conservative" bloggers and journalists (the bloggers here excluded of course). On the one hand I'm being told my liberals that as an evangelical Christian I won't vote because of the Foley scandal and on the other I'm being told I won't vote because the House and Senate didn't do enough conservative things to get my vote. Personally, I'll make up my own darn mind about what I'm going to do, thank you. And that will be to vote a straight Republican ticket.
Dallas, I loved your mention of "Debbie Downer". It fits liberals perfectly and now some conservatives as well.
5. Posted by kirktoe | October 18, 2006 9:24 PM |
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Posted on October 18, 2006 21:24
6. Posted by Scrapiron | October 18, 2006 11:34 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
First you have to look at the lying pollsters that tell you the lies. They ask questions that will suit them no matter what the answer. Another group that should be totally ignored or banned within 6 months of an election. That would be a good bill (ban polls within 6 Mo.) for congress to pass, fast.
6. Posted by Scrapiron | October 18, 2006 11:34 PM |
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Posted on October 18, 2006 23:34
7. Posted by harris | October 18, 2006 11:38 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Add me to those angered by the defeatist talk. Look at the polls, darn it. Three, four, five points difference in many races. Can't remember when polls didn't favor Demos by that many points when Republicans won. They always overpoll Dems.
Having said that, I simply do not understand why Republicans do not push the economy more. There should be commercials in every competitive market on the health of our economy.
7. Posted by harris | October 18, 2006 11:38 PM |
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Posted on October 18, 2006 23:38
8. Posted by Jim Addison | October 19, 2006 12:16 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
As someone mentioned today, can you EVER remember a race where the Republican was reported ahead by the late polls, yet he or she LOST?
Happens to Democrats all the time, though, including Kerry in the exit polls in 2004.
So WHY is it that Republicans often upset poll-favored Democrats, and so seldom - if ever - the reverse happens?
This incessant negativism is the single most dangerous threat to Republican majorities in the next Congress. It is the textbook example of a "self-fufilling prophecy."
COWBOY UP! There are LESS THAN THREE WEEKS left in the campaign, then people can spend the entire holiday season moaning if we lose.
Giving up is not an option.
8. Posted by Jim Addison | October 19, 2006 12:16 AM |
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Posted on October 19, 2006 00:16