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2006 Washington Senate Race

Two polls show Mike McGavick closing in on Maria Cantwell. A SurveyUSA poll has Cantwell leading 51% to 43%. A Strategic Vision poll has Cantwell leading 51% to 42%. McGavick probably cannot win this race, but the more money he spends on the race, the more Democrats may feel obliged to respond. Every dollar spent in Washington is one dollar not spent in Republican seats in MO, OH, PA, MT, and TN.

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Comments (2)

I know I sound like a broke... (Below threshold)

I know I sound like a broken record on this point, but McGavick is an excellent candidate who, like several others, got started too late.

To unseat an incumbent Senator, a challenger needs extra time to get himself known. Name recognition is the first big hurdle to overcome. An early start allows a challenger to introduce himself to the voters at a less fevered pace, and to gain experience campaigning before the full media spotlight is upon him.

A good RSCC recruiting effort might have found McGavick early and got him established, which could also have warded off primary challengers. Likewise, Bouchard in Michigan and even Kean in New Jersey would have benefited from an earlier start.

And - who knows? - maybe a strong candidate could have been recruited to oppose Bill Nelson in Florida, too.

Cantwell, Stabenow, and Nelson were very ineffective first-termers, and Menendez had only a few months in his seat. The search for strong challengers should have begun the day after the 2004 election.

We could still pull out WA, MI, and NJ, but any one we win at this point will be considered an upset, and it is very doubtful we can sweep them. It should have been a different story for these weakest Democrats.

Jim, I agree that Liddy Do... (Below threshold)
Ken Hupp:

Jim, I agree that Liddy Dole's recruiting and running the Senate campaign has left a lot to be desired. I do seem to recall however, that Kean was on board pretty early last year or maybe even late 2004, so I'm not sure that one was so much a late start. You are certainly right on the others though. If we hadn't spent so much time trying to get Dino Rossi into the race, McGavick might have been discovered earlier. And Florida should have been handled much better. If we couldn't get a candidate we felt was better than Harris, we should have at least refrained from beating her up so bad. That's to be expected from the Democrats, but not from us.

For now, we just have to play the hand we've got as well as we can, hold the Senate and then take a critical look at how the NRSC campaign was conducted after the election.

Ken




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