All eyes have been on three key districts in Indiana this year: the 2nd, 8th, and 9th all have Republican incumbents in tough reelection campaigns and are considered among the "most competitive districts" in the country - critical for the battle for control of the House.
Little attention was paid to the 7th district, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Julia Carson has been considered "safe" by all the analysts and both parties. The GOP has done nothing to help its candidate, primary winner Eric Dickerson. But Dickerson was unfazed, and has been waging an old-fashioned campaign - door to door, handshake to handshake.
It may be working. A new poll suggests Dickerson may even be leading, according to The Indy Channel.com:
A poll done by an Iowa-based company showed 7th district U.S. Rep. Julia Carson trailing Republican challenger Eric Dickerson.
The poll shows Dickerson with 45 percent of the vote and Carson with 42 percent. Another 13 percent of respondents said they will vote for another candidate or don't know yet who they will vote for.
Read the full report at the link above. It won't take many takeovers of Democratic seats to ensure continued control of the House. In any case, Democratic strategists cannot have planned to spend money propping up Carson. Any resources which go to help her will come at the expense of another competitive race.
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Congressional Races, Indiana
Comments (5)
I'd like to see the interna... (Below threshold)1. Posted by GOPWins | October 23, 2006 5:11 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I'd like to see the internals for this poll...
1. Posted by GOPWins | October 23, 2006 5:11 PM |
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Posted on October 23, 2006 17:11
2. Posted by Jim Addison | October 23, 2006 7:09 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The article mentions one talk-show host who claimed the poll grossly undersampled blacks (both Carson and Dickerson are black), but no link to the poll internals is provided. Hard to say . . . the guy may have seen them, or he could just be speculating.
2. Posted by Jim Addison | October 23, 2006 7:09 PM |
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Posted on October 23, 2006 19:09
3. Posted by LorenU | October 24, 2006 2:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
If the Reps are competative in IN-07 then we must be competative in IN-02, 08, and 09. If the Reps are leading in IN-07 wouldn't be logical to assume that we are ahead in the other three districts. Somewhere in the blogosphere I saw that a lot of House predictions are based on polling by a firm called Contituent Dynamics. I was at CD's website yesterday and if RCP is suspected of left leanings this organization is more so. I haven't seen any investigation on this firm or where their funds are originating. I wish I had the time to look into this further, alas back to my regular job.
3. Posted by LorenU | October 24, 2006 2:24 PM |
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Posted on October 24, 2006 14:24
4. Posted by Jim Addison | October 24, 2006 3:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics is associated with Charlie Cook of Cook Political Report somehow. They are new to the polling game, and many of their first round of results raised a lot of eyebrows because they were out of line with what everyone else was finding.
I doubt Dickerson really can win the 7th, but it does illustrate that polling can be, well, "out there" somethimes.
4. Posted by Jim Addison | October 24, 2006 3:24 PM |
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Posted on October 24, 2006 15:24
5. Posted by VoteLibertarian | October 28, 2006 9:55 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
DECISION 2006: Endorsements
The Detroit News
"In the open 7th District, the major party choices are the far-right Tim Walberg and the far-left Sharon Marie Renier. We'll shun the extremes and take our chances on the Libertarian candidate, Robert L. Hutchinson , a retired Air Force major from Dexter."
5. Posted by VoteLibertarian | October 28, 2006 9:55 PM |
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Posted on October 28, 2006 21:55