A prime-time press conference this close to an election is very doubtful. The networks would be too suspicious to carry it live, or else they would give unlimited "response" time to Democrats at the end.

Bush needs to keep doing what he has been doing - making speeches, granting some interviews, hosting some bill-signings. At this point, all he can do is keep the morale of the base up and present positive images for the rest.

Midterm elections are about turnout. The ABC-WaPo poll just out showing the GOP going down in flames has 40% of the sample of "likely voters" listed as independent or "don't know" party affiliation. These people go for Democrats by 2-1. Right, uh-huh.

The biggest thing about independents is they tend not to show up for midterm elections. There is NO party organization trying to get them to the polls, and they only rarely have an "independent" on the ballot to support. Likewise, key Democratic constituencies like lower-wage workers, those without a high school diploma, and blacks have significantly lower rates of turning out for midterms.

The left is clearly worried. They fear Karl Rove more than the Devil himself. The Nutroots are demanding Democrats in "safe" seats give 30% of their warchests to the DCCC or to candidates in tight races. That ain't happening.

The Democrats claim they have plenty of money for the final push, but the DNC just got a $10 million line of credit to put money IN. If you have "plenty," do you need to borrow?

We have no room for complacency, and little margin for error, but we can keep control of both the House and Senate by staying focused on the task at hand.

Republicans need to "cowboy up" for the final push. Hand-wringers, whiners, and Nervous Nellies need to get the hell out of the way.

Has everyone now subscribed to the wishful thinking of the MSM and the tea leaves-reading of the liberal pundits? Economy - good to very good; gas prices - low and getting lower. No major significant change in House or Senate.

Margin of error races will most likely go to the person most representative of that district: Rs in R districts/states and Ds in D districts/states. Since the so-called Republican/conservative apathy is largely a myth in my opinion, and since the majority of all these polls coming out recently are margin of error but for a few exceptions, I maintain that the Rs will maintain control of both houses. I am not active in politics but I am a scientist who was trained to carefully examine data. So that's my call for what it's worth if anything.

A few more points. The ABC/Post Poll showed that 62% think their own representative is doing a good job. Since that is most likely who they will be asked to vote for or not, that suggests to me that once again most incumbents will win. Those more generic questions are just ridiculous and uninterpretable. Also, as for presidential job approval you should look at the trend and not the absolute number for each poll. He has gone up in the Post poll and the CNN poll from their previous polls this month. I used to think Charlie Cook was pretty non-paritsan but do not any longer. He was on stage with Tom Daschle this week predicting a Dem sweep and that Amy person who does the congressional analysis is one serious Democrat partisan. She worked previously for a Democrat congresswoman. Take them with a grain of salt. Actually take all polls with a grain of salt. Just go out and vote for Republicans. If we do that, there is absolutely NO SPIN that can keep Rs from holding both houses. On C-Span today a large number of Dem callers were talking about election fraud and voting machines (Diebold). Tells me that they are already working on what they will do when their so-called "tsunami" doesn't materialize. Claim, as usual, that they were "robbed". It really gets old.

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2006/10/perception_can_become_reality.html

I have been a bit doen on RCP recently, since they seem to be either rooting for a GOP loss or excessively gloomy. But, this post nails it.

Bush's ratings are more important in a presidential election year. For the midterms, as noted above, turnout is the key. Raising money and energizing the base by appearances is the way Bush can help the GOP.

I still believe the polls are slightly biased toward the Dems (3-4 pts). And that is before taking in the GOTV effort by the GOP. I'm still predicting small losses for the GOP (1-2 Senate, 5 House) with the possibility of a better showing by the GOP as the Dow continues to rise and gas prices continue to fall.

Hard to discern how pollsters come up with their numbers. I'm like Pauline Kael who reported that no one she knew voted for Nixon, so how could he have won. Most people I come in contact with are of the opinion George W. Bush is among the finest presidents our country has ever elected. The difference in Kael and me, is I associate with folks from all walks of life, while her main contact was with the liberal, so-called elite. Just wondering who the pollsters hang out with.