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Minnesota 6th CD - Bachmann in the lead

Republican Michelle Bachmann has reestablished a healthy lead over Democratic nominee Patty Wetterling in the race to replace Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is running for US Senate. The latest from SurveyUSA:


In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District today, 10/25/06, Republican Michele Bachmann leads DFL Candidate Patty Wetterling, 49% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Since an identical SurveyUSA KSTP-TV poll released 10/9/06, Bachmann has gained 2 points and Wetterling has lost 1 point. The Republican had led by 3, now leads by 6. In early October, Wetterling had run ads referencing Mark Foley; the race tightened at that point. SurveyUSA observes here the pendulum swinging ever-so-slightly in the other direction. 88% of Republicans vote Republican. 89% of Democrats vote Democrat. Independents split. Bachmann leads because Republicans outnumber Democrats by 8 points in SurveyUSA's turnout model.


Read the rest at the link above. Although a reliably Republican district, most analysts had this race as competitive. Cook Political Report and CQ Politics rate it as a "toss-up."

Tip o' the hat to NRO's Sixers for pointing to this story.

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Comments (10)

looks like she's "Taking Ca... (Below threshold)
Ironman:

looks like she's "Taking Care of Business"...let's hope she closes in overdrive

This race isn't this close.... (Below threshold)

This race isn't this close. Michele's lead is bigger than this.

This makes some of the poll... (Below threshold)
eddie bear:

This makes some of the polls in this district right as Foley broke more suspect. The best example is Charlie Cook's Constituent Dynamics. Maybe we should look into NC-11 and NM-1 more closely. Could it be Cook was trying to set a meme and influence turnout?

Pardon my ignorance, but wh... (Below threshold)
GOPWins:

Pardon my ignorance, but what's a "meme"? I keep seeing it everywhere. Thought I was pretty sophisticated, but I guess I was wrong.

I live in the 6th district ... (Below threshold)
beancounter:

I live in the 6th district and Bachmann is a superb candidate. I doubt she was ever behind in the polls. Star Tribune poll (the only one I have seen where she was behind)always understates GOP support. They had Mondale winning Wellstone seat by 5--he lost by 5; they had Skip Humphrey wining governorship by 5-6--Humphrey came in third when Ventura won. The had Boschwitz behind in a Senate race by 5; he won by 10+.

Bachmann is a superb candidate. Very conservative both socially and economically. Stands up for her values and campaigns like the Energizer Bunny. Offset that by Wetterling being a one issue candidate--child issues. The thing that most non-6th district voters do not know is that Bachmann has raised 27 foster children. So much for any major advantage to Wetterling on child issues.

I seriously doubt she will have any trouble winning.

GOPWins ~ A "meme" was orig... (Below threshold)

GOPWins ~ A "meme" was originally a biological term, I believe, for a self-replication, such as virus or certain genes.

In politics, it refers to a catch-word or phrase which can supposedly become reality by constant repetition. It is a usual tool of the left, where adherence to the Party Line isn't left to chance. A good example is the "Bush lied" meme, repeated so often many people simply accept it, even though the "16 words" in the SOTU were later verified by the British Butler Commission.

Maybe I misused the term "m... (Below threshold)
eddie bear:

Maybe I misused the term "meme" a bit, but regarding politics, the three big ones floating around this cycle have been "air of inevitability", "disgusted conservatives sitting out over Foley" and "nothing can save the GOP". Both of them have been pushed by the MSM and their pals in the pundit class like Charlie Cook. That is where my use of the term has been centered.

As for Cook in particular, I have held that since he started using such lines, he has shaped his polling to match what he has written. My example has been MN-6, with "St. Patty" Wetterling using Foley as a club against her Republican opponent. Polling had Wetterling down 3 or 4 points, yet the only post-Foley poll that had her up was (guess who?!?) Cook. And his spread was the same 3 or 4 points, but only in the Dem column.

I could go on, but a synonym of meme I have seen has been over at RedState, where they use the term Known Fact ™.

Thanks Jim.... (Below threshold)
GOPWins:

Thanks Jim.

Cook Political Report an... (Below threshold)

Cook Political Report and CQ Politics rate it as a "toss-up."

I hope we have lots of these toss-ups Election night. I suspect we will.

I always thought that meme meant the prevailing storyline that the fMSM is using on that subject.

One last thought: It's time to ignore polling. They're junk. And throw out patterns too. You can't pattern stupidity. Little Bobbie Casey won't win because he's dumber than a box of rocks. When Santorum said Casey wasn't qualified about foreign policy, Casey told the AP this: "Mr. Casey called Mr. Santorum's charge a "ridiculous assertion," citing his current job as state treasurer and eight years as auditor general. "I've been a statewide public official in Pennsylvania for a decade," Mr. Casey said."

Attaboy Bobbie. Tell people your foreign policy bona fides are the fact that you've been a glorified beancounter in Pennsylvania. That's embarassingly stupid.

Also, ignore the poll showing Rendell with a 66-25 lead. That's nonsense. They juwst threw out 17 legislators for the pay raise thing. Now Corrupt Eddie's running as a status quo, don't fix a thing politician & he's leading by 41 points? I'd trust Baghdad Bob more than that poll.

Charlie Cook is awful for c... (Below threshold)
Florence Schmieg:

Charlie Cook is awful for congressional elections. He uses that woman Amy who worked for a Democrat congresswoman and she is very partisan. Cook lately has been appearing on panels with Tom Daschle and other Democrats. He is not objective in this election cycle. He was better in the presidential election. Larry Sabato has been pretty poor also. Most of the races are margin of error tossups. I think dem districts go dem and republican districts go republican.




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