In what ways does this midterm compare and contrast with the 1994 midterm which saw a Republican House majority swept into office for the first time in 40 years? Mark "Mystery Pollster" Blumenthal has been analyzing this question in a series of articles, aided by conversations with Democratic pollster and strategist Mark Mellman. In Part I he looks at the lead in the generic ballot, while Part II considers the enthusiasm of the base. Perhaps the most interesting - and consequent - of these columns is Part III, which looks at the proverbial "irresistible force meets unmovable object" situation when political trends collide with incumbency:
The greater instability in 1994 compared to 2004 exists in other measures, although the contrast is not quite as stark. An unusually high number of retirements in 1994, helped create 28 open seat contests in Districts represented by Democrats. Without the protection of incumbency, Republicans rode the anti-Democratic wave to win 20 of those seats. This year features 20 open seat contests in 20 districts represented by Republicans, and at the moment the Pollster.com tally suggests Democrats have a decent shot at eleven of those seats. We show Democrats leading by statistically meaningful margins in seven, three are toss-ups and one district (Tom Delay's Texas-22) is widely considered to be leaning Democratic but lacks a public poll.
In 1994, as Chuck Todd points out, Democrats "had a huge freshman class" that was vulnerable to the Republican wave. That year, 13 of the 34 incumbents defeated by Republicans were freshman first elected in 1992. In 2006, according to Todd, "the number of vulnerable GOP freshmen this cycle numbers six (and that's being generous)."
Read the rest at the link above, including the comments, where Mellman notes that Democrats held 58 seats in 1994 which had been won by Bush the Elder, while only 18 Republicans currently hold seats in districts won by Kerry this year.
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