Michael Barone looks at both the recent history and results of polling in his Townhall.com column:
In 2004, the electorate that went to the polls or voted absentee was, according to the adjusted NEP exit poll, 37 percent Democratic and 37 percent Republican. In party identification, it was the most Republican electorate since George Gallup conducted his first random sample poll in October 1935.
But most recent national polls show Democrats with an advantage in party identification in the vicinity of 5 percent to 12 percent. Party identification usually changes slowly. Historically, voters have switched from candidates of one party to candidates of the other more readily than they have changed their party identification.Over time, big changes in party ID can and do occur. When I started in the polling business, in 1974, national party identification was almost 50 percent Democratic and not much more than 25 percent Republican.
Since then, Democratic party ID has fallen, particularly in the South, where many voters who considered themselves Democrats found themselves voting Republican for president and, increasingly in the 1980s and 1990s, for other offices, as well.
Republican party ID has increased. But that's a process that took decades. If you could go back in history and conduct polls, I don't think you'd find any, and certainly not many, two-year periods when the balance in party identification shifted from even to having one party 12 percent ahead of the other.
Read the entire column at the link above.
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Comments (2)
No matter the final count i... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Florence Schmieg | October 30, 2006 10:15 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
No matter the final count in the House after the election, the House will be moved to the right. The Rs who lose in D heavy states were the most liberal and moderate Rs. Therefore the % of conservative Rs rises. The Ds who win in R heavy districts will be the most conservative and moderate Ds. So the % of conservative and moderate Ds in the House also rises. Very interesting. The D leadership is very left. This could lead to some interesting alliances. The new Ds have to worry about being voted out in 2008 if they stick with the lefties leading their party.
1. Posted by Florence Schmieg | October 30, 2006 10:15 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 10:15
2. Posted by Jim Addison | October 30, 2006 12:29 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Astute observation. It will undoubtedly create problems for Pelosi, should the Democrats win the majority, in getting any legislation passed.
Will they revive the "Blue Dog Caucus?"
However, the speculation on the web (fueled, no doubt, by Democrats fearful of the image of "Speaker Pelosi" on voters) that certain "conservative" Democratic House candidates have not committed to vote for Pelosi for Speaker is unfounded, and Pelosi's people in Frisco say they have been assured privately of those votes.
2. Posted by Jim Addison | October 30, 2006 12:29 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 12:29