Today is Monday, which apparently is Lame Excuse Day in the corridors of Real Clear Politics and Spin. I say this, because even as the RCP guys have backtracked a little bit on their weasel post of October 20, these guys are still saying, in the same sort of voice we hear from Couric, Pelosi, and other minions of Leftist Lying, that the race is a foregone conclusion. RCP is still, quite without merit, claiming that "the lack of any released polling is a sign that this race is almost definitely a Democratic pickup". I must repeat the obvious, that the absence of information must never be taken as evidence for any assertion, because by definition you cannot derive something from nothing. You would hardly be satisfied with a doctor who did no tests, and used the lack of tests as a basis for his diagnosis. You would hardly be satisfied with a mechanic who didn't bother to check out your car before telling you what he thought was wrong. Even those old mystic types who ripped out goat entrails to see the future, at least based their predictions on something. There are only two kinds of people who would deliberately try to sell the idea that no data must mean 'x'. RCP is either getting really, really lazy, or else they are flat being dishonest. Even as they continue to spin this race as "over", the story they link to in their most recent update calls the race "a statistical tie".
The Houston Chronicle, not known for supporting Republicans, even admitted that when Zogby's poll specifically named the candidates running for TX-22, "Sekula-Gibbs drew 52 percent support in that situation, with Lampson holding at 35 percent."
President Bush is visiting Sugar Land today, and since he claimed 64% of TX-22's vote in 2004, this can only help Sekula-Gibbs.
Why was there no polling information for so long? The obvious must once again be observed:
[] Through the first couple months of 2006, the widespread belief was that DeLay would run for re-election, and was seen as a very strong incumbent. I note that RCP never bothered to consider that the absence of polling then would have been an "indicator" that DeLay had already wrapped up another term, if we applied RCP's methodology. The fact that DeLay is not planning for his next term, rather effectively disproves that fable RCP has been selling that 'no polling' tells us anything.
[] Ronnie Earle's vendetta against DeLay was years in the making, and had several starts and stops and spurts along the way. As a result, DeLay ran in the primaries because the GOP wanted a consistent message sent to the district. As for Lampson, he did not even open his office to campaign in TX-22 until April 8th. The pollsters waited for the dust to settle before they could poll on the race, since there was a lot of doubt about who was running.
[] Shelley Sekula-Gibbs was not even running until September. This means that the polls had to decide whether - and how - to poll TX-22, since the nature of the write-in requirement made this election unique.
In total then, the lack of polling was clearly not due to anyone locking up the race, but rather the result of a series of events which raised questions about who was running, and how polls should address the decision. It is simply false to claim that Lampson has effectively won this race, and patently dishonest to manipulate a lack of data to claim a result not in evidence. In actual fact, there is no question at all that if this race were a normal head-to-head race with both Lampson and Sekula-Gibbs on the ticket for their respective parties, Sekula-Gibbs would enjoy a tremendous lead, and notions that the Democrats could hope to take this seat would be a poor joke. The only reason that Lampson is in the position he is, is the result of Democrat dirty tricks. I mention this, because most people outside the District do not understand the underlying facts of this race:
[] Lampson has never lived in Sugar Land, but comes from Beaumont. His eligibility for the Congressional race is not unlike Hillary Clinton's "residency" which allowed her to run for Senator of New York. Sugar Land Texas, however, is very distinctly not New York, and such tricks do not sit well with many voters.
[] TX-22 is strongly Republican and Conservative. It has been described as "leaning" Republican, but that is very much an understatement.
[] Sekula-Gibbs is very well known in Sugar Land. Her candidacy to run for TX-22 comes from not only her residency there, but also her reputation, which is largely positive.
(continued)
With those facts in mind, it would seem strange that this should be a race at all, but the Donks played their card well, even if it is a filthy card. Republicans who vote "straight-ticket" not only will not have a vote registered for Sekula-Gibbs, but would not even have a chance to write-in her name, because the Donks got the courts to rule both that DeLay could not run, but also that no one else could be put in as a Republican on the ballot, so there is no Republican slot on that race. The real question then, is how many Republicans will understand how to write-in Sekula-Gibbs in this election. The 25% "undecided" response in the Zogby poll, it appears, comes from not only people who are undecided, but also include those who are unsure how to write-in Sekula-Gibbs.
From the available information, garnered from local news reports and the internal data from Zogby's poll, it would seem reasonable to say that Lampson will collect almost all of the Democrat vote in TX-22. That sounds great, but as I said, that being a largely Republican district means that Lampson is looking to collect between 25 and 35 percent of the voter base there, depending on Donk turnout. As for Sekula-Gibbs, she is actually quite popular, but will lose a chunk of the Republican vote from people who fail to properly write her in. Her share of the voter base starts at 52 percent, but loses 15-20 points due to the write-in complication. Figuring in Republican turnout as well, her basic numbers are between 22 and 42 percent of the voter base. Adding those two together, plus the GOP voters who fail to write in Sekula-Gibbs, and that leaves about 17 percent of truly undecided voters. It is possible for anything from a 47% Lampson 28% Sekula-Gibbs result, to a 54% Sekula-Gibbs 31% Lampson result. The only honest answer here is that
A) This race is very much still undecided
B) Turnout will be critical for each side
C) Calling this a sure Democrat takeover is both dishonest and foolish.
The chief reason I mention this, is because so many on the Left and in the Media are calling TX-22 as an example of some kind of Donkey Tide, and come November 7 there will be a lot of those 'experts' trying to explain how their lies and distortions were either honest mistakes, or somehow not as bad as they will look in the light of actual results.
I repeat my earlier conclusion: I have no complaint against a partisan choosing to cheer for their side, but when someone who purports to be objective plays a trick like this, I will not hesitate to call them out. For whatever reason, RCP has abandoned honest evaluation of the evidence in favor of a disguised partisanship, and this conduct is clearly unethical.
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Comments (12)
DJ, I have had a hard time ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Steve_in_Corona | October 30, 2006 1:36 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
DJ, I have had a hard time believing the line that this seat is lost..
given the publicity around this race
and given that we are talking only a district (not a statewide Senate race)
and given that turnout in off-year elections is small (so those who bother tend to be somewhat educated on who and why they are voting for)
We had a situation in CA involving a county judge who was found with child porn right before the election - and there was a large PR campaign to make sure he was not automatically reapproved.
And he wasn't - no problem. It was a local county thing only - so the talk radio, local paper and word of mouth was more than satisfactory to carry the day.
I can't believe that the actual voters in this district will not bring the person's name clearly written on their sample ballot - if they intend to vote against the Democrat.
Remember how 'confused' supposedly the CA-50 election was supposed to be with the primary and special election on the same night? No problem of course resulted - but the experts insisted the GOP-led district would be incapable of voting properly.
Amazing.
1. Posted by Steve_in_Corona | October 30, 2006 1:36 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 13:36
2. Posted by Jim Addison | October 30, 2006 1:40 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It's hard to defend RCP and the others who have made this call on TX-22. They have merely assumed the conventional wisdom of pundits is correct, and included that pro-Democratic opinion in the "fact base" to make this forecast.
I've defended RCP and other sites who depend on polling averages, because it isn't their fault if poll models are flawed or samples are biased. Garbage in, garbage out, as the "old school" computer geeks used to say.
Note also the ridiculous WaPo poll I link in the post above. There's a reason they call this time of election years the "silly season."
2. Posted by Jim Addison | October 30, 2006 1:40 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 13:40
3. Posted by eddie bear | October 30, 2006 1:42 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Given that RCP today posted that Nancy Johnson in CT poll virtually before it was released, and was crowing about it, along with not posting other polls for a day or so that were good for the GOP (Rasmussen's poll with Talent up last week is an example), I get the feeling that their relationship with Time has created a case of Joe Scarborough Syndrome. Or, the addition of Ryan Sager, a Liberatrian who is mistrustful at best of the neo-cons and evangelicals, has influenced them. Either they have flipped to the Dems, or they are now a part of the "losing maybe the best thing for us" crowd.
DJ: have you been in contact with Tom or John to ask them what's going on?
3. Posted by eddie bear | October 30, 2006 1:42 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 13:42
4. Posted by ama055131 | October 30, 2006 2:07 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It is easy to see rcp is another outlet for Time Co.Why would anyone use rcp as their source, this is not a fair and balance
4. Posted by ama055131 | October 30, 2006 2:07 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 14:07
5. Posted by crajay | October 30, 2006 3:00 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I live in TX-22 (near NASA) and voted for Sekula Gibbs yesterday. Although many have mentioned that she has a very difficult name for a write-in candidate, there is something that the media and pundits have overlooked regarding her chances of success.
First, despite Zogby's polling, today's Houston Chronicle noted that Sekula Gibbs is in a statistical tie with Lampson according to a recent local poll.
Second, ElectionLawBlog posted an interesting note on Texas law. Apparently, Texas law provides that a voter's intent must be clearly ascertainable when he or she votes for a write-in candidate. See http://electionlawblog.org/archives/006564.html
Although there is much ambiguity in the Texas law, and no doubt Lampson will immediately challenge and result that doesn't put him at the top, I believe things are much better in TX-22 for the GOP than the national pundits make it out to be.
5. Posted by crajay | October 30, 2006 3:00 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 15:00
6. Posted by eddie bear | October 30, 2006 5:14 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Gee, RCP really put up quickly the Rasmussen 1 day (10-29 a weekend day none the less) poll in VA showing at least an 8 point swing for Webb. Something about that poll is fishy.
6. Posted by eddie bear | October 30, 2006 5:14 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 17:14
7. Posted by eddie bear | October 30, 2006 5:32 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It looks like Charlie Cook and his RT/CD crew strikes again.
They have news ones out on KY3 and IL6 that are 180* of other polls. They have Northrup down 6? and Duckworth up while every other one has her down? It looks as though Cook is just trying to publish polls that he hopes will get him more face time and force the GOP to divert money they really don't need to divert.
7. Posted by eddie bear | October 30, 2006 5:32 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 17:32
8. Posted by Jim Addison | October 30, 2006 5:38 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
crajay ~ great link on Texas law:
Simply "Shelley" would be acceptable under this ruling, despite the protest from Lampson's camp.
Still, I think most voters would be able to manage "Sekula Gibbs" (no hyphen on the write-in typepad) or close enough to count, if it is their intent to vote for her.
8. Posted by Jim Addison | October 30, 2006 5:38 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 17:38
9. Posted by Scrapiron | October 30, 2006 6:18 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It came out today that the idiot prosecutor in North Carolina that ruined the lives of three young men in a phony rape case without proof can actually be arrested and tried under Federal laws. I'll bet Earles falls under the same laws. Using the power of a public office for a personal vendetta isn't good, and is against the law.
When will the charges be filed by Delay, Nov 8th would be a good date.
I worry about the mental capacity of the citizens that would elect slime like Earles.
9. Posted by Scrapiron | October 30, 2006 6:18 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 18:18
10. Posted by Wethal | October 30, 2006 6:19 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Presumably just "Gibbs" would do, too.
10. Posted by Wethal | October 30, 2006 6:19 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 18:19
11. Posted by Tom in Texas | October 30, 2006 11:40 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I would like to begin by saying that I expect Sekula Gibbs to win this election. I lived in Sugar Land for 8 years and now live in Downtown Houston, so I do have some knowledge of the area, which is why I have to raise a few points concerning your post.
Lampson is not an interloper a la Clinton. Beaumont (Lamont's hometown) and Clear Lake (Sekula Gibbs') were both added to TX-22 after the redistricting, so he is no more an outsider than she is.
You seem to think this district encompasses only Sugar Land. It does not. Clear Lake and Friendswood are also heavily Republican suburbs that were added, but the entire area leading to Beaumont in East Texas is, though conservative, staunchly Democratic.
It is ironic that DeLay, through the hubris of expecting reelections forever, made his district much more competitive for the Dems in the near future. While the area is still majority Republican, and is hugely conservative, leading to centrist/rightist Dems such as Lampson, a conservative Democrat stands a much better chance in this district than preredistricting.
Due to the huge amount of advertising in the area by Gibbs' campaign, I do think conservatives will be able to write her in to victory. The region is well educated and largely aware of Sekula Gibbs already, and she is untouched by both DeLay's personal problems and by the stench of Washington that does affect Lampson. The adds being run are comically ironic, with the Republican candidate running on an outsider message and the Dem running ads attacking Gibbs for being pro illegal immigration.
11. Posted by Tom in Texas | October 30, 2006 11:40 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 30, 2006 23:40
12. Posted by Oak Leaf | October 31, 2006 11:44 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
DJ-
When you have a chance, please go and slap McClure.
12. Posted by Oak Leaf | October 31, 2006 11:44 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 31, 2006 11:44