But Tennessee looks better. Ford made another mistake. He said he didn't judge, then said Democrats both loved and feared God, while poor Republicans only feared God. The absurdity and hypocrisy behind the statement was astounding. It was on the front page of the Commercial Appeal and will surely stir the GOP base. Latest poll showed Corker surging.

Alexander

Who did the poll? When did they conduct it? I think we all agree that it's going to be a tough year, but you can't rise and fall on every poll.

These are toss up races. You cannot react to changes of plus or minus 3 points. They are meaningless changes.

Do you follow your own advice? In the section below you tell us to stop reading and just vote. Then you freak out about the Talent poll?

Deep breaths.

Remember how screwy the polls have been this year. We've had 14-point fluctuations in as many days in the same race by the same pollster.

Don't forget how margins of error work, either. If the poll says Smith 45, Jones 44, 4% MOE, it's really "+/-" 4%, and it applies to each result. So, Smith might be as high as 49 or as low as 41, while Jones could be anywhere from 48 to 40. IT IS JUST AS LIKELY JONES IS LEADING, the poll can only give a range - and that only with 95% confidence. One out of 20, one or both results will be beyond the MOE.

Then there are the samples. Most polls have had Democratic advantages of 5-12% in the sample, with large proportions of independents. Independents don't vote in large numbers in midterms, and as Michael Barone points out, while party numbers do change over time, they were dead even in 2004, and they never change that fast.

Need more? Okay, how about "likely voters?" The WaPo poll the other day sampled 1200 "adults" and came up with 1000 "likely voters." Sorry, but that translates to over 83% turnout - about a third higher than in the last PRESIDENTIAL election, and more than DOUBLE the highest midterm turnout in the last 20 years.

The fMSM is only trying to distract and demoralize us so their prophecies can come true. Keep both eyes on the prize. One more week to go.

McClure-

Get a grip on yourself!!!!

Uh, the CNN poll has Talent TIED with McCaskill. I can understand worrying about Virginia, because Allen is an awful campaigner. But Talent has been ahead and tied in almost all the recent polls. If he can manage the GOP GOTV he has a great shot at pulling it out..

Somewhat OT -- What in the hell is up with the Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies polls??? They show us losing BIG in virtually all the close races. No other polls show that. For instance, They have Northup down by 6, but a poll out the same day shows her up by 6. Same thing with Walsh in NY and others.

Not that I'm worried by them, but perplexed. Is CD/RT reputable (I've heard there's some tie-in with Charlie Cook)? How do they vary so widely from other polls?

It would be really stupid for Va to replace Allen with a rookie that Peloshi will make sit in the back of the pew and raise his hand or speak when told. I know Northern Va is ate up with idiots but the rest of the state that benefits from Allen's experience will pull it out. If Webb is elected the people of Va can watch all Federal aid and grants head for Calif.
You know that and I know that. Only someone with an IQ below 50 would not know that.

Guys,

No matter what those polls say, Missouri and Virginia are not in play. If they were, the RNC would be doing things differently. These seats are not in play.

Burns should be just fine in Montana. I think the odds are still against Kean, but he has a chance. Although I like Steele, he has even more of an uphill battle. Please not my predictions -- I hope to be able to pull this out on Nov. 8th.

Montana: Burns
Virginia: Allen wins comfortably (5 to 10?)
Tennessee: Corker
Missouri: Talent
NJ: Menendez (D)
MD: Cardin (D)
PA: Santorum (R) -- yes, you read that right.

above should be, "Please note my predictions"

The poll Alex is mentioning is yet another Rasmussen one day on Sunday (10-29) poll. This is just like the VA race poll revealed yesterday. Who knows what is really going on.

One problem. Sunday was the victory parade for the Cardinals in STL. at least 300,000 people were in the vicinity of Busch Stadium and the parade route for at least 5 hours. The rest were either outside (it was a rare sunny, warm and dry fall day). If another one coming out with the period during the week reveals the same thing, then we'll talk.

GOPWins:

RT/CD are indeed tied to Cook. His polls and some of the bizzare one day flips (i.e., VA and MO) strike me as ateempts to influence news and campaigns.

Finally (and I have to go back to work):

A few other polls in MO had shown Talent gaining steam just a few days earlier than Rasmussen did his poll. Most of that was as the MJF commercial backfired. I get the feeling some of this is an attempt to push a story line.

These polls are forced as I can see it. They often seem like push polls on all sides. There are comments today in the media of all sides, that the Dems may have peaked too soon. That is interesting. We all know it is Turn Out which will win this race..I think Va. will still go Allen, Mo. will go to Talent, Mont. will go for Burns, Cardin will probably beat Steele but it will be close if those 6 Dem. endorsements hold true, Corker will beat Ford because people see through liberal God talk so the Senate should be close but still Pub. The House might go Dem but that is not in cement yet. A week is still a long time. No one thought Kerry would implode with one week to go, but he did last night. Who knows what idiotcy a Pub or Dem will partake of till Nov. 7??? Oh, and unfortunately, NJ will elect Menendez since they are the most corrupt state in the union and do not see any problem electing indicted or near indicted pols. Kean would be the better guy but there are not enough Pubs just like there are not enough in Pa. , Md. and that leaves Santorum out and Dewine also goes. Too bad since Rick is the best we have in many ways including courage.

Who knows how many more dead people will vote.

This is the kind of stuff you have to expect during this last week. The story of a big Dem victory has been pushed hard since last year, and these folks don't want to be proven wrong. But really, we're supposed to believe Webb gains ground big time after the brouhaha over his writings and attacking Lynne Cheney? And Claire McCaskill pulls into the lead after the MJF flap and the phony Iraq vet story? This has been a recurring pattern that Webb and McCaskill step all over themselves, and suddenly we see polling data that says they are gaining. That is what we are supposed to believe.

I think the bigger question is why someone like Rasmussen, who most of us respect and admire, would do a one day poll on a Sunday, knowing the history of weekend polling. That is certainly enough to influence a Zogby interactive poll (not that I believe anything Zogby says, including DeWine being within 1.4 points in Ohio)and give another one day poll with the same findings some believability. For what its worth, NRO is reporting that Allen says his internals show he still leads, although he is not yet at 50 percent.

Bottom line: Get out there and vote, donate and get family and friends to vote.

Ken

Also, McCaskill enjoyed a surge after her "Bush let black people die" comments came out and her miserable debate appearances. Webb "surges" after his writings come out. I don't get it. This cycle, whenever a Dem commits a gaffe, polling comes out soon after showing it has helped them. What gives?

As I said here, we shouldn't put much credibility in polling this year. We rail about the Agenda Media's reporting all the day long but then we accept their polling? Where's the logic in that?

Nehemiah--Why stop there? If we don't show faith that John Faso will pull it out, we allow Spitzer to steal the election!! We can't have that!!

Sorry that was me.

BTW, I have no problem with any predictions anyone makes. We're all entitled to our opionions, and obviously there's no guarantee the pundits will be right.

But when the gop names MO as one of their 3 firewall states, and EVERY poll has shown the race a dead heat (I'm literally not sure if I've seen more than 2 polls showing either candidate up 4 points in the last year), MAYBE you're wrong to say the race is "not in play."

Right Jeremy,

Thanks for the info about "plays". Missouri is not in play given the leanings of Missouri in recent elections (though it has been close, it has consistently favored Republicans).

This is the old Ashford seat. You think they'll give McCaskill that seat? The brief time this seat went Democratic was due to a sympathy vote.
This seat is in play like Feingold's is in Wisconsin.