If those polls are accurate, then kiddie porn has become much more popular in Virginia since I lived there.

Nobody wanted to give me Hostettler in Indiana and the 23 points they say he is behind. Anyone want to give me Allen and 4%?

Anyone that considers replacing Allen with a now known stupid Rookie deserves exactly what they will get for the next six years, nothing. Allen can bring more to the State of Va in six months than a rookie can in six years. The democratic leadership from Ca. will sit Webb in the back of the pew and tell him when to raise his hand. They can't do that to Allen with his seniority.

I'm shocked as well. Of course, RCP is gloating, saying the book release was a case of a desparate Allen reading his internal polls, and these numbers catching up. Could that be the case, or did the Mediacrat counterattack on the book carry the day?

That Rasmussen poll was a one-day Sunday poll on the Sunday before Halloween. If GOP voters weren't involved in church activites, maybe they were watching football or taking kids to daylight Halloween parties?

incumbents should favor boredom. I don;t understand why Allen thought more controversy was a good thing

Allen is not going to lose to Webb. Period. Why is it that we say we don't trust polling data yet we continue to get nervous whenever they indicate a Republican in trouble.

Sorry but I just don't buy that a 7 point swing has taken place in a week. And definetely not after the revelations about Webb last week.

I don't buy this latest Allen/Webb poll either. That is quite a number swing over novels with naughty words which the MSM is touting.

Many in VA know Webb's past history with regards to the Viet Nam memorial for women; Tailhook; and lots of other political stuff. In fact there is suppose to be a website I have heard about but never visited, military women against Webb.

Rasmussen - 1 day poll on a Sunday.
Opinion Dynamics - conducted by CNN over the weekend. 597 registered voters.

I agree Allen should be cakewalking this thing but if you're going to go bananas over every slanted poll you're not going to make it to net Tuesday

Don't buy it. I continue to think this is a further effort to stifle conservative voters. That is been happening to us since day one. Go vote everybody.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls/
New Zogby poll
Webb 51
Allen 47

Ah, yes, Zogby: the "interactive" poll with the self-selected internet sample?

Good one. Go back to your porn - I mean, your Webb novel.

Sorry, but I can't accept that the revelation that Webb published novels with graphic detail would lead to a 10 pt swing in his favor in 1 week (at least not in Virginia)

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48106.0
Tradesports now has Webb at 55.

Ah, yes, another Tradesports fan, eh? Bet you've never even been to the site.

Notice the chart and yesterday's close. Webb was at 36.5 yesterday, before those polls were released, and someone bought up over 300 contracts after the close. Notice that the TOTAL volume is only 3000 contracts - that is over the course of the entire year (by setting their contracts by party, Tradesports can run a market before nominees have even been selected). 10% of the total trades for the year were made last night.

Similarly, Allen contracts closed at 71.0 yesterday, but the polls spooked the market. It's easy with such low volume - which is why you shouldn't trade stocks with volumes under 250,000 shares per day unless you can afford to lose all or most of your money.

I repeat: if anyone wishes to give me Allen and the 4 points reported, they can name their amount.

Um, scrapiron...seniority? Allen's been in the Senate for a grand total of...drum roll please...ONE TERM!!

This is not the same as replacing Daschle with thune.

BTW alex, you better get used to saying Senator Jim Webb's name instead of just referring to him as "the Democrat."

Jim--I won't disagree about the lack of liquidity and large spreads in t-sports influencing the price, however I will say, as someone who's traded tens of thousands of contracts of t-sports (I only tell you this to avoid a snide remark about not going to the site), that the total volume is NOT the volume traded--it's the volume OUTSTANDING.

For those familiar with the markets, these are essentially binary (digital) options. And the number there is a NET number. So if person A buys 10 contracts from person B, person A is long 10 contracts and person B is short 10 contracts. Person B then buys 10 contracts from person C. Person A is still long 10, B is out of his trade, and C is short 10. That will show a "volume" of 10 while 20 contracts have actually been traded.

This isn't to say your overall point is wrong, but just so you know as far as their terminology, which they're really wrong about (they should call it contracts outstanding), you weren't fully correct.

One more thing, and someone PLEASE give me a good answer if you have one...I've literally been searching since pre-2004...

Republicans like to rant about Dem-slanting polls. Please tell me how that would help the Dems. MAYBE in EARLY EARLY fund-raising. But as far as voters voting (which is where you guys tend to whine), I would think there's an equally likely chance a Dem voter won't vote thinking that the race is won as there is a gop voter not voting thinking the race is lost. And there'd be an equally likely chance of the Dems wasting money on a seat they won't win and the gop wasting money on a seat they don't need to help protect. And considering the gop has more money than the Dems, that would actually benefit the gop. A Dem dollar is worth more than a gop dollar.

If someone has some insights on this, it would be much appreciated. Thanks.

All polls pre-Kerry implosion are irrelevant.

Add a couple points to GOP post-Kerry.