A few new polls have been released in New Jersey on that state's Senate race. A Reuters/Zogby poll has Menendez up 12 points 49% to 37%. A Farleigh/Dickinson poll has Menendez up 10 points as well - 48% to 38%.
I highly doubt that either poll is accurate. There is no way the corrupt Menendez is going to keep Kean under 40%, when Bret Schunder won 42% in 2001, and Doug Forrester 44% in both 2002 and 2005.
That leaves two polls which may give a more accurate indication of where we stand. Rasmussen has Menendez up 48% to 43%. Rutgers-Eagleton has Menendez up 46% to 42%.
There are no internals out on the former poll yet, but the later does have some interesting internals to consider. The main reason why Menendez seems to have surged over the past month is not that voters have suddenly become fond of him. Indeed, his unfavorable rating now exceeds his favorable rating. 42% view him favorably, 34% favorably. Kean is viewed favorably by 40%, unfavorably by 34%.
The reason is that Menendez, or more accurately the barrage of ads from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have succeeded in tying Tom Kean to President Bush. (I have seen one ad every single time I turn the tv on in Philadelphia). 37% link Kean "very closely" to the policies of the Bush Administration, up from 17% in September.
In a climate such as this, and in a state such as New Jersey, that is lethal for Kean. In the final few days, Kean needs to differentiate himself from the President, if not personally, then on the issue of Iraq. He can also help himself by separating himself from Washington. He needs to bring those undecided voters to him.
I am not ready to call this one leaning Democratic, simply because of the two candidates involved. If this were any year other than 2006, Menendez would be on the wrong side of a landslide. However, if I don't see Kean shift his strategy by Saturday, I may have no choice.
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2006 Senate Race
Comments (3)
I certainly see why Democra... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | November 2, 2006 11:44 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I certainly see why Democrats are attempting to run against Bush this year: he is at a low point of popularity, as usual in a sixth year, and it sure beats trying to run on the merits of their candidates versus the Republicans themselves.
Democrats have some good candidates out there who can run on their own - Ellsworth and Hill in Indiana and Lucas in Kentucky immediately come to mind - but there are a lot of moonbats, crooks, and general losers, too, such as Tester and Brown, Menendez, Patricia Madrid, Jack Carter, Jim Webb, etc. Of course they want to tie the opponent to the unpopular President and avoid scrutiny on their own.
But HOW can they do this to Kean? He isn't in Congress at all, has no known ties to Bush, his Dad was highly respected for independence, etc. Are Jersey voters just stupid?
1. Posted by Jim Addison | November 2, 2006 11:44 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 2, 2006 23:44
2. Posted by AWW | November 3, 2006 8:17 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
NJ became a laughingstock in '02 when they pulled the last minute switcheroo to Lautenberg and the NJ voters didn't bat an eye and voted for Lautenberg. They appear ready to retain this title for electing someone under indictment vs a clean, well regarded son of a popular former governor.
2. Posted by AWW | November 3, 2006 8:17 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 3, 2006 08:17
3. Posted by Jim Addison | November 3, 2006 2:20 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Menendez hasn't been indicted YET. That will probably come later on . . . he will resign from the Senate, allowing Democratic Governor Corzine to name another corrupt Democrat to the seat - just as he did Menendez in the first place - giving them a leg-up on the special election to follow.
In any sane state in any sane country in any sane world, Menendez wouldn't stand a chance of being elected to ANY public office. Unfortunately, recent history hasn't demonstrated New Jersey having a propensity - or even a tolerance - for sanity. They seem to LIKE their politicians corrupt, for some reason.
3. Posted by Jim Addison | November 3, 2006 2:20 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 3, 2006 14:20