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2006 Senate Race Update

Where do we stand now in the Senate with only a little over 48 hours until the voting will begin?

Rhode Island - Lincoln Chafee seemed to be finished in October, but he has come roaring back, first in internal polls, now in a Mason-Dixon poll. This one is again a toss-up.

Pennsylvania - Rick Santorum has never led in any poll, and he remains down in the single digits. I will have more on this race later.

Ohio - Mike DeWine was down double digits, but he seems to have pulled again into single digits. It will be hard for him to win again, given the toxic environment for Republicans in the Buckeye State. Turnout reports seem to be good however. Had DeWine run a campaign focused on taxes and social issues, he would probably be in better shape.

Virginia - George Allen continues to trail or be tied or slightly ahead. I remain extremely worried about Allen and won't feel any better until the results start to come in from Northern Virginia. Allen needs to keep it close in this heavily populated region.

Tennessee - Bob Corker has been magnificent. He has opened up a double-digit lead over Harold Ford and showed how a Republican can overcome the obstacle of a liberal masquerading as a moderate. Republicans across the south and the nation should take note.

Missouri - Jim Talent remains locked in a tight race in his bid for a full term in his own right. It will all come down to the GOTV. The Missouri GOTV is one of the best in the country.

Montana - Conrad Burns has been splendid and has pulled into a dead heat. Liberals are apparently very nervous about this one as their liberal nominee seems stuck or falling in the polls, his once large lead gone.

Bottom Line: The best case scenario right now seems to be a GOP loss of only two seats, a worst case scenario of 6.

However, the Democrats also have some vulnerable seats.

New Jersey - Things looked rather grim in New Jersey last week as the corrupt Hudson County boss Bob Menendez seemed to have a mid single digit and growing lead over Tom Kean Jr. However, Kean has come roaring back. A Gannett Poll just released has him down 3. The previous poll by Gannett had Menendez up 9. Internal Republican polling indicates that Kean is slightly behind but holding up. If Kean has momentum, and he seems to, this one could go late into the night. The national party though needs to have observers at every polling place in Hudson and Essex Counties. New Jersey Democrats will do anything to win.

Maryland - Michael Steele has been one of the most impressive candidate of the cycle. His campaign has produced superb ads, and Steele has crushed his Democratic opponent in the debates. Polls here show the race either tied or with Cardin slightly ahead. It will come down to the African-American vote which rejected Cardin in the primary. If Steele wins 30% of that vote on Tuesday, it's Senator Michael Steele.

Minnesota and Michigan - The Republican candidates here are down by the high single digits. If however the winds are now blowing in our favor, then the effect will be seen in these two races.

Bottom Line - The best GOP scenario at this point is a wash and no net change. The worst is 6 seats. We shall see.

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Comments (7)

Let's get one thing straigh... (Below threshold)

Let's get one thing straight first: whether it is a +2 (hey, the "best case" should be the best, eh?) or a -6 result for us in the Senate, ALL of those races will have been relatively close, and several will be real squeakers, one way or the other.

That isn't a "wave election," no matter who wins how many, is it? History has shown that when Democrats win normally Republican seats, or when Republicans win normally Democratic seats, they rarely keep them long.

That said, there can be NO DOUBT which way the wind has been blowing lately. The "blue wave" is giving way to a "red shift." If the election were 30 days later, we would be odds-on to GAIN seats in both houses of Congress.

If the election were 30 ... (Below threshold)
fatman:

If the election were 30 days later, we would be odds-on to GAIN seats in both houses of Congress.

And if my mother had wheels she'd be a cart. ;)

Just got back from 7:30 mas... (Below threshold)
chri m.:

Just got back from 7:30 mass, Homily included instructions to vote on Tuesday for candidates who support and respect life. Maryland Right to Life literature on every car after mass to support Michael Steele over Cardin. Steele is going to win going away!

Speaking as an Ohioan - Dew... (Below threshold)
Rob:

Speaking as an Ohioan - Dewine has struggled against the toxic scene - but his campaign seemed silly at times.

He has run the consistent theme of no taxes (or at least attack ads that say Brown will) but it wasn't until this last week and a half he figured out there were other issues out there. Same issue I have with the blackwell campaign - they just seemed to say "taxes we won't raise them" and repeat that over and over again.

I kept waiting for more - some positive ads saying "this is my plan" and they never came. Both ran poor campaigns (though I think Blackwell has been nailed by other people - specifically OHGOPers who have more invested in their position than the good candidate) but it's nice to see Dewine pulling out more in terms of ads. Hopefully it isn't too little too late.

If DeWine hadn't joined the... (Below threshold)
Sandy P:

If DeWine hadn't joined the gang of 14, I wonder if he would have been up?

They punished his son in the primaries.

Very interesting brief inte... (Below threshold)
harris:

Very interesting brief interview with Dan Rather on Fox this morning. He's pushing his new program, but when asked about the election, he was not giddy about Demo chances. He indicated he thought it might be closer than people think, particularly in view of the recent good economic news and today's verdict on Saddam. Thought it very interesting considering all the other pundits today still see a huge dem takeover.

One warning note though. As a Tennessee resident, I am very aware of the get out the vote in Black precincts in Memphis. Busloads of people taken to early voting for the past two weeks,and there's about twice the ordinary number of votes in early voting. The Ford machine is pulling out all stops. A poll shows Corker getting only three percent of the Black vote. This is of concern.

PA conservatives,I a... (Below threshold)
greg:

PA conservatives,
I am excited today. The GOTV folks came thru our neighborhood today. Out here in Chester Co. we are 3-1 GOP and if we could coast anywhere it owuld be in Chester Co. I am happy to see we are not coasting. Winning big in Chester and other rural counties is the only way Rick is going to dampen the lead that the Dems bring out of Phila. ( as an aside, how do more people vote in Phila than actually live there?)
Back to my good mood... The war of yard signs finally started, all weekend I saw friends and nieghbors putting our Santorum, Swann, and congressional signs. This corner of of Chester Co. borders Delaware County ( Curt Weldon). I think Weldon is toast...but i am praying for rain..heavy rain in DE county.
Laslty, in 2004 we had Dem activists work the dems in the area...didn't see them this year...di see our GOP GOTV folks and the two ladies that came by here were HOT. GOP wins cuz we have the Chick factor covered!!!!!




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