You all know how I love good news. Well, along the same lines as those in Jim and Alexander's posts below, Pat Hynes has some reaction from some Washington political consultants who are seeing the tide begin to turn.
Internal Republican polls from around the country are showing a modest, yet consistent and noticeable trend in favor of Republican candidates. Note: these trends appeared before Saddam Hussein was found guilty of war crimes and sentenced to death--a turn of events Karl Rove himself could not have timed better for Republicans.A couple of weeks ago I wrote:"What you are hearing is a collective sigh of Republican relief after this latest round of data has come in," one high-level Republican consultant in Washington told me. "Word is already starting to spread that the prophesied 'tidal wave' might only be a ripple."
One high-profile Republican pundit could hardly contain his glee that the prognosticators would be proved wrong, again. "If the present Republican surge is real and continues through Tuesday, Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and John Zogby will be stripped bare of any credibility when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes," he stated. "Personally, I hope they go out of business."
Specifically, sources tell me that the Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana Senate races continue to trend toward the Republicans. Michael Steele, the Republican nominee for US Senate in Maryland is in a dead heat with Ben Cardin. Even Senate races Republicans have written off are showing positive trends: Mike DeWine in Ohio and Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania are said to be "surging."
In the House Republicans are now rapidly lowering estimates of how many seats they might lose. "Whereas a week ago we were looking at the possibility of losing 25 seats, we now think that number is closer to 10," a Congressional Republican insider told me. "But it could come down to seven if positive trends continue in Connecticut and in the Sunbelt."
The stars in the heavens and a virtual sex page scandal aligned perfectly this election season to give Democrats perhaps their best opportunity in years to fulfill their dream of taking back the House and (in their wilder dreams) the Senate, too. So how on earth are they going to spin it when they fail?If Democrats do not win control of the House, even if they do pick up some seats, the big story will be not only how could so many of the pundits have gotten it so wrong, but how on earth are the Democrats ever gonna win, if not now. If you want to see those stories about the Blue Tsunami that wasn't, get out and vote and encourage all your right-thinking friends and neighbors to do the same.I don't know that Democrats will fail to take control of the House or Senate, but my gut, and the way the pendulum appears to be swinging this week, tell me that the GOP is likely to retain control.



Comments (5)
Lorie, the MSM, I mean Dems... (Below threshold)1. Posted by COgirl | November 5, 2006 1:25 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Lorie, the MSM, I mean Dems, will also start crying voter fraud. Mainly because they thought they'd rigged enough votes to win. Didn't Mason Dixon polling even show Chafee ahead in RI?
1. Posted by COgirl | November 5, 2006 1:25 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 5, 2006 13:25
2. Posted by Jim Addison | November 5, 2006 2:05 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Some moron in the Boston Globe had a column this past week saying if the Democrats don't win big, it proves vote fraud.
Funny how it is the Democrats who fight tooth and nail against anything which would tighten up voter identification, isn't it?
My own feeling is that the situation was never quite so dire for the GOP as the fMSM played it. A few small boosts - thanks, Sen. Kerry! - is all it took to get the pendulum swinging back our way.
I've been saying this pretty much all year long. It's easy to be dissatisfied and tell a pollster you'd prefer a Democrat, as long as it's a "generic" Democrat upon whom you can project your own vision of what a good candidate should be. But when you take a look at the miserable losers the Democrats actually run, you recoil and say, "EEEWWWWWWW!!"
WaPo has the "generic" edge down to 6% for the Democrats, where it was 14% two weeks ago in their poll. BTW, their final poll in 1994 had the generic Democrats up 4%, and you remember how that turned out . . .
:-D
2. Posted by Jim Addison | November 5, 2006 2:05 PM |
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Posted on November 5, 2006 14:05
3. Posted by Soupy2c2 | November 5, 2006 6:52 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
And they will blame "Jon Carrey"
3. Posted by Soupy2c2 | November 5, 2006 6:52 PM |
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Posted on November 5, 2006 18:52
4. Posted by ordi | November 5, 2006 7:02 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It is Bush's Fault!!!! How dare he be optimistic! LOL
4. Posted by ordi | November 5, 2006 7:02 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 5, 2006 19:02
5. Posted by ironman | November 5, 2006 8:29 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Just posted on a left leaning CT web site
Democrats: Time to Panic?
http://connecticutlocalpolitics.blogspot.com/2006/11/democrats-time-to-panic.html
5. Posted by ironman | November 5, 2006 8:29 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 5, 2006 20:29