I am starting to sense the shift has come and there are two reasons.
First, Mason-Dixon has released another batch of polls. I have not seen the results yet of all of the polls. The news in Virginia was bad as it had Jim Webb leading by one point. However, the poll also showed a dead heat on the marriage ballot. Virginia may be trending left, but the ballot should win easily.
However, Mason-Dixon has Conrad Burns surging into a tie with his Democratic challenger. Both candidates win 47% of the vote. For Burns, who has been down for most of the year, and was written off by many analysts, the news continues to be good.
Best of all, Bob Corker has pulled out into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent Harold Ford. Corker leads 50% to 38%.
Even in Rhode Island, the news is good. Mason-Dixon has Lincoln Chafee also surging and now leading by a single point - 46% to 45%.
There is no word on what the results were in Ohio and Pennsylvania. However, if the GOP can hold RI, VA, TN, MT, and MO, it would quite a triumph indeed.
The second news is the Washington Post/ABC News poll.
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2006 Senate Race
Comments (3)
Well, "holding" VA, TN, and... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | November 5, 2006 4:05 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Well, "holding" VA, TN, and MT is hardly a triumph. It should be considered "normal." Perhaps the races will be closer than usual in those states, but the results won't change. I think MO is trending our way, overall, if very slowly, so holding that shouldn't be considered much of an achievement, either.
Not sure about RI. It's as dark blue a state as they come, but the Chaffee family has a great tradition there, too.
Being strongly competitive in MD and NJ is great, as is our improving positions in MN, MI, and WA, even if we fall short this time.
If Democrats can't win big with an unpopular war and unpopular President, their future is pretty doggone dim, isn't it?
1. Posted by Jim Addison | November 5, 2006 4:05 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 5, 2006 04:05
2. Posted by voter | November 5, 2006 7:22 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
According to Drudge, Chafee is actually LEADING by one point, which is even better. Frankly, I do not find this shocking. I have attested all along there is no reason for Chafee to lose. He is very well-respected in RI, and he has absolutely no ties to the president or conservative republicans at all. Liberals have tried to play that a vote for Chafee keeps the democrats out of the sentate -- but constituents will not readily turn against their well-favored congressman.
Because of the democrat oversampling, perceived low turnout and natural bias persistent in polls in general, I attribute any poll showing a tie or 1+ or 1- for the republican a republican win. Thus, I strongly believe we will take MO, VA, MI, TE and RI. We will lose PA and OH. And perhaps we may take either MD or NJ (certainly not both and maybe none). We are looking at 53/54 at the end of the day.
2. Posted by voter | November 5, 2006 7:22 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 5, 2006 07:22
3. Posted by Soupy2c2 | November 5, 2006 8:52 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Was there ever really a shift toward the dems?
OR a coordinated effort to win by keeping us home?
3. Posted by Soupy2c2 | November 5, 2006 8:52 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 5, 2006 08:52