Predicting House races is much tougher than the Senate. For one thing, there are many more of them. For another, polling is very difficult. It's one thing to get a poll in less populous western states where the districts are very large and regular in shape. But in most of the country, gerrymandering - aided by computer design and voter databases after the 2000 census - has rendered districts so convoluted that a pollster can't really be sure if the person he calls is one district or the next, even if the person confirms it (since many don't know for sure anyway, they assume the pollster is calling for the district they are in).

I'm going to give my take on most of the districts considered competitive by the major analysts. Charles Cook and Stu Rothenberg have added so many districts to their "competitive" lists lately that I will probably omit several of those - but I don't believe most of them are truly competitive in any event. There is a huge difference between a closer race than in the past and one which offers the challenger a genuine chance.

I will attempt to do this regionally, following roughly the pattern of my Senate calls below.

New Hampshire ~ Republican Rep. Charlie Bass is in for a real fight against Paul Hodes. I consider this a tossup, and the state will either be an = result or a -1 for the good guys.

Connecticut ~ Earlier this year, I considered Rob Simmons the most vulnerable Republican in the state, and though Nancy Johnson and Chris Shays relatively safe, but now I think Simmons is the only relatively secure seat. Shays is a tossup, and Johnson is behind a bit. For the state, a loss of 1 - 2 seats.

New York ~ The open seat in the 24th district is trending Democrat, but I think our other incumbents hold. Loss of 1 seat for the state.

New Joisey ~ Ferguson is reelected in the 7th for no change.

PA ~ A couple months ago, I had Weldon and Sherwood as safe and Fitzgerald and Gerlach at risk in our suburban Philly seats, but that has reversed itself due to scandals sullying the first two. Hart holds the 4th CD. We lose 2 here.

Ohio ~ For the record, I never considered Steve Chabot in the 1st or Joan Schmidt in the 2nd CD as seriously threatened, and it now appears they will hold on. Deborah Pryce in the 15th has closed well, but that is still only a tossup. Joy Padgett will suffer from Ney's scandal and intransigence in resigning in the 18th; I hope she gets another shot at Zack Space in '08 because this is a district which should have a Republican Rep. The state loses 1 -2 seats for us.

Kentucky ~ A wash, as Geoff Davis is reelected in the 2nd and Ann Northrup wins again in the 3rd. No change.

Indiana ~ Our three targeted incumbents are Chocola in the 2nd, Hostettler in the 8th, and Sodrel in the 9th. I've always felt that Sodrel was the most likely to lose, but he has returned the race to a toss-up in the late stages when his opponent, former Rep. Barron Hill, pushed too hard on his attack ads painting the straight-laced Sodrel to Mark Foley, and then was caught lying about his athletic record. Now he probably holds his seat. Chocola is in a race that is too close to call, but he can make it up with turnout.

Which leaves Hotstettler, who has always confounded the polls with his unusual campaign style, almost exclusively relying on his grassroots organization which always seems to come through in the end. Strangely competitive for the first time could be the 7th, where Julia Carson has behaved a bit oddly in the safe Democratic district. Some voters may think Republican Eric Dickerson is the football star . . . For the state, we may lose one, or break even.

In Illinois, Pete Ruskam holds the Henry Hyde seat against Iraq War vet Tammy Duckworth, and McSweeney still has a chance to unseat Democratic birdbrained Rep. Melissa Bean. For the state, even or + 1.

Iowa - Mike Whalen is the underdog against Democrat Bill Braley for Jim Nussle's old 1st district seat (the long-time Republican Rep. is in a tight race for Governor this year), and Democratic Rep. L. Boswell seems likely to retain his 3rd district. Iowa is - 1 or break-even.

In Minnesota, Republican Rep. Gus Gutknecht holds his seat in the 1st, and Michelle Bachmann wins Mark Kennedy's old seat in the 6th. State: break-even.

Wisconsin ~ Green holds our open 8th CD seat for no change.

Colorado ~ We lose Bob Beauprez' open 7th district seat to Democrat Ed Perlmutter, but the other incumbents hold in 4 and 5: we are - 1 for the state.

Washington ~ Reichert is reelected in the 8th CD for no change.

Nevada ~ we hold both "competitive" districts in 2 and 3 for no change.

California ~ For all the money and ballyhoo about the 50th district seat formerly held by Duke Cunningham, Bilbray is reelected and no change for the state.

Arizona ~ The "endangered" Reps. Renzi and Hayworth hold the 1st and 5th districts, but the open Kilbe seat in the 8th goes down, for a - 1 in the state.

New Mexico ~ Heather Wilson is reelected in the 1st CD for no change.

Texas ~ In the district rated "most in-the-bag Dem takeover in the nation," Shelley Sekula-Gibbs has roared into a dead heat against Democrat Nick Lampson. She is the write-in candidate to replace DeLay, and conservatives in the district are livid that pundits think Lampson is a shoo-in because they are too dumb to write "Sekula-Gibbs" when her name will be on a list of registered write-in candidates right in front of them. I predict we win this district, but it may take a legal fight. No change in the state delegation.

Virginia ~ Thelma Drake holds off Phil Kellam in the 2nd; no change in the state.

North Carolina ~ Charlie Taylor is in a real race against Heath Shuler in the 11th district. A true t race, the state is either even or - 1 for us.

Georgia ~ Here we have a couple of pick-up opportunities. Democratic Rep. John Barrow is in a rematch with Max Burns in the 12th, while Republican Mac Collins is taking on Rep. Jim Marshall in the 8th CD. We should win at least one of them, so the state is + 1 or +2 for us - haven't seen many of those!

Florida ~ Katherine Harris not only isn't competitive in her Senate race, she has left her old House seat in the 13th at risk in her wake. We stand more chance of losing this one than Foley's old seat in the 16th. Republican Clay Shaw is under heavy challenge in the 22nd as well. Florida is -1 or -2.

=====

THE BOTTOM LINE: Our loss will fall between 5 and 16 seats. My prediction is - 11, or 221 seats, holding the majority.

Feel free to kick me around in 24 hours if I'm full of it.