2006 Senate Race Polls (Wizbang Politics)

Strategic Vision just released a batch of polls, and I am going to go down the line and take them apart.

Michigan: Jennifer Granholm leads Dick DeVos 52% to 42%. However, 22% of those polled think Michigan is on the right path, 66% on the wrong path. Umm, incumbent Governors don't win with those numbers.

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey, Jr. leads Rick Santorum 52% to 40%. However, Santorum has a 45% to 43% approval rating. Incumbents normally score around their approval rating. Santorum cannot have a 45% approval rating and win 40% of the vote. As for the Gubernatorial race, the poll has Rendell leading 58% to 35%. That's nice, except Rendell's approval rating is only 54%.

Wisconsin: Jim Doyle has a 40% approval rating. Yet in a match-up with Mark Green, Doyle leads 48% to 45%. Try again. Incumbents with approval ratings that low don't win 48% of the vote.

New Jersey: Menendez leads Kean 49% to 42%. That is also well and good, except, Menendez only has a 44% favorable rating. If that is favorable rating, I venture his approval rating is not too far behind.

Republicans, my message - Ignore the polls. Go work the real polls.

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Comments (4)

The polls in Michigan canno... (Below threshold)

1. Posted by Critial Matt | November 6, 2006 8:40 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Critial Matt:

The polls in Michigan cannot be correct. If Granholm and Stabenow were up by 10% each, there is no way they would have brought Bill Clinton in on the last weekend with so many other close races. Michigan is supposed to have been a slam dunk for the dems.

Posted on November 6, 2006 08:40

I think Strategic Vision is... (Below threshold)

2. Posted by Louis | November 6, 2006 9:05 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Louis:

I think Strategic Vision is one polling firm that you could begin doing without. It sounds like their methodology for obtaining results is flawed to the point that they may not be worth reporting.

Posted on November 6, 2006 09:05

Sorry Matt, believe it. Sta... (Below threshold)

3. Posted by Gander Gardener | November 6, 2006 10:32 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Gander Gardener:

Sorry Matt, believe it. Stabenow has held a solid lead all through the fall, and Granholm has surged in the past several weeks. This one is all but over.

Posted on November 6, 2006 10:32

I don't doubt the Dems will... (Below threshold)

4. Posted by Critial Matt | November 6, 2006 1:05 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

I don't doubt the Dems will win both of these races, I'm getting at the polling data. Why bring in the #1 star of Dem politics to a state that you consider wrapped up? I'm betting on the margin of victory to be about 1.5-2%.

Posted on November 6, 2006 13:05