There is a lot of analysis below of the Senate races, but as Alexander pointed out, the House races are very fluid and most of the analysis I read Sunday night still held that Republicans would lose the House. I am torn on this. I didn't predict a Democrat takeover of the House even when the polls were really lousy, because I knew there was still time to pull things out. Now that there is only a day to go, I find it hard to predict a Dem takeover because the momentum is swinging our way and there are so many close races. The "Big Mo" counts for a lot. I find it hard to believe there is not some trickle down effect coming from some of the Senate races that are closing. I expect to see some tightening in the close House races over the final hours. There are so many toss ups that the GOP will have to win to hold the House that it will be quite a feat if they do it, but I still think it is possible, especially if momentum really is swinging as much as the polls are showing. I understand that the conventional wisdom is still that Dems will pull it out in the House, but I am not counting the GOP out yet.
I thought the doom-and-gloom predictions for the GOP this year were overboard, but they did worry me somewhat. My memories of 1994 gave me the most reason for concern. This race is not like 1994 in that the GOP in 1994 ran on a very specific agenda, and the Dems today are running on not much of anything except bash Bush. One memory from 1994 has haunted me though. I remember driving back from my mom's on election night and saying to someone before I left that I wanted to get home to watch the election results because it looked like Republicans were going to do pretty well. I was wrong. Republicans didn't do "pretty well," they stomped all over everything in sight. They clobbered. They dominated. Total and complete destruction. I turned the radio to the talk channel on the way home and it was already clear that Republicans were winning everything. What that experience made me fear (not believe, but just fear) was that the pollsters could be wrong again, and that Democrats were actually going to do better than expected, as Republicans had in 1994. These latest poll results have lessened that fear significantly. As Ed Torres says below, it really is all up to us now and it all comes down to whose voters want to win badly enough, I want it pretty badly -- how about you?
Update: Rahm Emmanuel is "worried" about these latest polls.



Comments (4)
Let not your heart be troub... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | November 6, 2006 4:34 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Let not your heart be troubled.
The pre-election polls were skewed to the Democrats in 1994, and they are still skewed that way in 2006. The bias is effectively increased by the science applied to the 2000 redistricting, which made ever fewer districts competitive. The national sample used for the "generic" question is more or less irrelevant now.
The polls always over-predict the Democrats' results. That's why they are worried right now.
The "wave" predictors like Cook, Rothenberg, and Sabato are going to look foolish. The more cautious analysts like CQ Politics and Election Projection will come out somewhat better.
1. Posted by Jim Addison | November 6, 2006 4:34 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 6, 2006 04:34
2. Posted by Julie | November 6, 2006 11:31 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Lorie, It still depends on who shows up to vote and whether or not it's raining. One thing I haven't noticed in the MSM, is anything about early voting and how many people are showing up. This is traditionally a low turnout election.
2. Posted by Julie | November 6, 2006 11:31 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 6, 2006 11:31
3. Posted by FreeKeys | November 6, 2006 1:21 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
On "Meet the Press" yesterday Rahm's handbook was quoted as telling DemocRAT candidates to dig deep for dirt and keep digging (because there's no such thing as a clean Republican or something like that). I hope he gets what's coming to him, and his candidates' CLOCKS get cleaned.
How about writing a column on the depravity of his philosophy, anyway, given all the fine, decent Republicans we still know and love?
3. Posted by FreeKeys | November 6, 2006 1:21 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 6, 2006 13:21
4. Posted by hnav | November 7, 2006 12:07 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
LET's Roll Ms. Byrd...
4. Posted by hnav | November 7, 2006 12:07 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 00:07