How do both sides define victory in this midterm election?
Historical standards for any President's 6th-year midterm prophetize significant losses for the President's party. Depending on how far back you go for averages, the expected loss would amount to 29-53 House seats and 7-9 Senate seats.
This year is different, though. The issue is control of the House and Senate. The House has been narrowly divided for several terms, and Democrats have believed they could retake it before, only to fail. Republicans' grip on the Senate is somewhat tighter, with a 55-45 edge and the Vice President ready to break a tie.
Democrats could accept not winning the Senate IF they win the House, for which they need a net gain of 15 seats. A gain of 14 seats represents a defeat for them this year. OTOH, they can spin any net gain in the Senate as a victory, because there was never an expectation of winning a majority there.
There is one question I have posed several times recently, here and elsewhere, to which I have yet to receive an answer: "When was the last time one party controlled both House and Senate, and the House switched control - but NOT the Senate?"
I can recall instances where the Senate switched without the House. I await enlightenment on the reverse.



Comments (17)
Amazingly, the one example ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Sam | November 7, 2006 6:25 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Amazingly, the one example I could find was the 1842 election, when the Democrats recaptured the House, but the Whigs held onto the Senate. Of course, that was before direct election of Senators, but still, even before that the House switching sides had been accompanied with a Senate shift.
So, there we are. In Eighteen hundred and forty-two, the House switched without the Senate too ;-)
1. Posted by Sam | November 7, 2006 6:25 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 06:25
2. Posted by Sam | November 7, 2006 6:29 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Just to show the dangers of going off half-cocked, turns out the Democrats took the Senate in 1844, then managed to lose the House in 1846, again without losing the Senate.
Things you learn, huh?
2. Posted by Sam | November 7, 2006 6:29 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 06:29
3. Posted by jpm100 | November 7, 2006 7:53 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The one thing I fear is the fact the public gets itchy and wants to change parties just for the sake of change. Many are close to forgetting why they kicked out Democrats in '94. Others are too young to remember why and have been filled full of fairytales by the liberal hijacked education system.
It's impossible to predict the future, but I would much rather the Democrats win a house in '06 so the public can be reminded of who they truely are over them winning 2 of 3 or 3 of 3 of the Senate, House and Presidency in '08.
I'd take a '06 Democrat House win over an '08 Democratic Presidential win that gives them access to the Supreme Court at a critical time.
I know Democrat gains in '06 doesn't really guarantee a Democrat loss in '08, but the public has a short memory and can be fickle for the sake of being fickle.
Its sort of like a bit of relief if a child gives himself a minor minor burn off a candle. Not a good thing in itself, but the child will be much safer around even far more serious fire hazards from that point forward.
So even a loss could be a victory of sorts.
3. Posted by jpm100 | November 7, 2006 7:53 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 07:53
4. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 10:00 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Victory is either:
1) Winning, or
2) Surviving the onslaught of terrorists if the Dems win, cut, and run.
4. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 10:00 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 10:00
5. Posted by Steve_in_Corona | November 7, 2006 10:32 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
OTOH, they can spin any net gain in the Senate as a victory, because there was never an expectation of winning a majority there.
---------------------------------
Say what? Just last week MSM's home page ran a state by state breakdown where they breathlessly reported that things are so bad for the GOP that now the Dems do not even have to sweep - just take 6 out of 7 competitive races!
For the last few MONTHS it was a given that RI, MT, OH, and PA were GONE. No doubt. Toast.
With VA, MO and TN all showing the Dem with a small lead at the same time (and only 2 of the 3 needing to fall) the Dems had the Senate locked up as well.
I remember the Dems celebrating the Senate takeover weeks before there was serious talk about winning the House too...
They will never be able to spin a 2-3 seat pickup as a win. Let em try...
5. Posted by Steve_in_Corona | November 7, 2006 10:32 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 10:32
6. Posted by P. Bunyan | November 7, 2006 11:19 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"They will never be able to spin a 2-3 seat pickup as a win. Let em try..."
Even if there turns out to be a net loss of seats in both the house and the senate for the "democrats", the "democrats"/MSM will spin it as a victory for themselves.
6. Posted by P. Bunyan | November 7, 2006 11:19 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 11:19
7. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 11:39 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Victory is seeing the Dem voters in here bawl their empty, brain-dead heads off.
7. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 11:39 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 11:39
8. Posted by ted | November 7, 2006 11:50 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
jpm100, don't worry about voters forgetting the pathetic dems, John Kerry just succesfully reminded them last week!
Kerry is in essence on the ballot.
8. Posted by ted | November 7, 2006 11:50 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 11:50
9. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 11:58 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Ted (where is Mary Jo) Kennedy could really be regretting his drunken drive into the water at Chappaquiddick. After all, the Dems may really be in need of Kopechne's drowned vote today.
9. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 11:58 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 11:58
10. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 12:00 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
THIS JUST IN:
Kerry believes that the troops are TOO STUPID to vote and therefore ALL those votes WILL BE CHALLENGED!
10. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 12:00 PM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 12:00
11. Posted by Scrapiron | November 7, 2006 12:53 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
theExecutioner, Atually the military vote was challenged by the dim's, before it was cast.
Now we're hearing that in dim controlled area's (again) that the poll workers don't know how to operate (even turn on) the voting machines, but the will be allowed to vote, several times, each.
11. Posted by Scrapiron | November 7, 2006 12:53 PM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 12:53
12. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 1:14 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
And we won't have to wait for the day that the vote totals exceed the number of registered voters.
12. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 1:14 PM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 13:14
13. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 1:27 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
to figure out that the Dems are cheating.
(sorry for omitting the rest of my sentence)
13. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 1:27 PM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 13:27
14. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 1:40 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Sam ~ Thanks! I knew it must have happened sometime . . .
Ah, the Whigs . . . now, THERE was a fun-lovin' bunch!
;-)
14. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 1:40 PM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 13:40
15. Posted by Chris | November 7, 2006 7:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
On the other hand, speaking as an "empty-headed dim," I think that the current administration is doing a wonderful job. Let's check in:
-Iraq. Check. Going great.
-Israel vs. everyone. Check. Policy of not intervening for the first 4 years worked great.
-Iran. Check. Look how they're bending under the threat.
-North Korea. Check. Now they've got a nuke. Must be the Dem's cut and run fault.
C'mon. Scandal after scandal after scandal.
And by the way, Kerry was in the process of insulting Bush's intelligence. If you missed that, well...it doesn't say much for how well you looked at the rest of the paragraph (which he butchered in a few places...).
The number of times President Bush has butchered the English language is stunning, and we recognize it's a slip. ""The only way we can win is to leave before the job is done." (Nov 4, 2006).
This shouldn't be about how stupid Dems are or how stubborn Republicans are. Rather, wouldn't you like to see an earnest debate (not flat out proclamations) on what has or hasn't worked in the middle east, how to work towards minimizing the conflict between cultures that breeds terrorists, how to move our US poor to being able to support themselves, or how to improve the US debt situation?
15. Posted by Chris | November 7, 2006 7:24 PM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 19:24
16. Posted by flagella | November 8, 2006 1:29 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
How can any Republican excuse the number of scandals out there?
The one that I read about that really kicked me in the shins was that positions in the CPA were won based on fidelity to Bush and socially conservative ideals, not skills. So you have two frat brothers who voted Bush in charge of the Iraqi prison system instead of anyone (R or D) who knows how to run a prison system.
Failing to plan for the aftermath is bad, but then ideologically fucking up the aftermath by picking people not based on qualifications but rather based on loyalty to Bush? Ludicrous.
Anyway, if you earn the minimum wage, life just got better. If you want to borrow money to go to college to get ahead, life just got better. If you think the bipartisan 9/11 commission might have had some good ideas, Americans just got safer. If you think Medicare (that big, expensive boondoggle) should bargain with drug companies to save taxpayers billions and save seniors billions, you just got a chance to see that.
Welcome to a US House not run by ideologues, not here to rubber stamp a far right agenda, and able (THANK GOD) to hold other branches of government accountable for the first time since 2002.
16. Posted by flagella | November 8, 2006 1:29 AM |
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Posted on November 8, 2006 01:29
17. Posted by flagella | November 8, 2006 1:30 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
P.S. I would call pwning the House by a good 20 seats victory, and I would call a 4-6 seat pick up in the Senate a victory. I would not call beating the Iraqi National Guard a victory, or a mission accomplished.
17. Posted by flagella | November 8, 2006 1:30 AM |
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Posted on November 8, 2006 01:30