Sorry to burst your bubble, but that's not how it would work. In New Jersey, if there's a Senate vacancy, the governor (Corzine-D) would select someone to fill the remainder of the term, as happened with Menendez this year--the only difference is that this time the remainder of the term would be 5+ years, meaning that the Democrat, whoever it is, would be fully ingrained as a republican. Sorry to burst your bubble.

I will give you credit Alex--you're one of the most optimistic people I know. Shortly after 2004 elections, you were talking about a gop filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and only a few weeks ago you were talking up santorum's ability as a closer and the fact that he still had a good chance to win (he lost by 18 points--does anyone know the last non-indicted incumbant US Senator to lose by 18 points?? I have no idea if it's ever even happened before).

If the gop has more than 47 Senate seats after 2008, then the NRSC chair deserves a raise. The bottom line is that there are at most 3 or 4 (and that's being generous) Dem vulnerabilities, while there are at least 5 or 6 (and that may be a low-ball number, especially if there are some retirements) gop vulnerabilities.

And I like our chances in places like VA, CO, and OR much better than the gop chances in places like AR and MI.

Jeremy - Most states require a special election rather letting an appointed person serve the bulk of a term. Then again being NJ you are probably right that it isn't kosher.

Don't get too cocky about the Dems in '08. '06 was a non-presidential year and turnout was way down. That along with GOP missteps this year (Iraq, corruption, etc) led to GOP losses. In a presidential year the GOP holds MT, MO, VA, and probably 5-10 more house seats. And don't forget 10 of the lost GOP seats were due to incumbent ethical issues, not Dem takeovers.

If the Dems go too far running the House and Senate over the next 2 years and nominate a poor candidate (Hillary, Kerry) then the GOP could be in good shape in '08.

I will research the relevant election law in New Jersey, but if after the social security reform failure, the Dubai Ports deal, Hurricane Katrine, the indictment/disgraceful exist of several Republican Congressman, the Foley scandal, and the war in Iraq, the best the Democratic Party can do is pick up 28 seats and most of them by a slender margin, you're in for a rude shock in two years.

The last two years have been Murphy's Law for the GOP, and the Democrats have a slender a margin in the House as the GOP did.

AWW--First of all, in a presidential year, it would help DEMS in NJ, and second, turnout in most states was equal to 2004 levels, at least where there were contested races.

Jeremy - "turnout in most states was equal to 2004 levels"

Wrong. From CNN

Virginia

Webb + Allen = 2.4MM votes
Bush + Kerry = 3.1MM votes

Ohio

Brown + DeWine = 4.1MM votes
Bush + Kerry = 5.5MM votes

Missouri

Talent + McCaskill = 2.0MM votes
Bush + Kerry = 2.7MM votes

Montana

Burns + Tester = 393K votes
Bush + Kerry = 440K votes

As for NJ I'd have to agree that no matter how ridiculous a Dem candidate is put forth they will beat the GOP candidate.

When will Republicans stop dreaming about New Jersey? Good God, you people should really think about choosing your battles.

It reminds me of the ridiculous stories on Fox News about how Michael Steele was "closing the gap" on Ben Cardin in Maryland. It was all pure ficition.

How long can you people keep deluding yourselves? New England and the North-East states have been trending Democrat for years. Republicans have to hope they can hold the line at Virginia and Indiana. You can kiss Ohio and Jersey off for sure.

New Jersey is not a blue state, nor a particular liberal one. It is an extremely corrupt one. The NJ Democrat Party is more of an organized crime outfit than a political party. Probable the easiest way for the Republicans to win a Senate seat here would be to run wealthy, corrupt individual who could buy off enough portions of the NJ Democrat machine to take the election. Many of the voters in this state are responsible for this pathetic situation and deserve no better.

Jeremy W. misses the main point, as I see it, it would be ironic if Sen. Menendez had to resign (like our previous Governor had to resign in disgraced way, having a gay affair with the man he hired for NJ's homeland security; paying him more than necessary with taxpayer dollars) NJ people can't tell good from bad character; obviously...they vote for the one who will 'give to them' and if 'he gives me what I want' he's ok.

NJ is Republican in southern Jersey. Southern Jersey or Southwest is Republican and the Northern part.

Capp is right, NJ is crowded in the middle portion, the people are rude, impolite, yes - there does seem to be things not right in its democrat ruling structure.

Many baby boomers I know, tell me - when they retire; for many it's soon - "they are outta this state" Going to Virginia, South Carolina, Pennslvania, Upper NY state (also Republican) North Carolina, Florida...

Note: ALL Republican governed states. Where money is not the chief objective and good manners and politeness are. (It's not the Republicans who hold the wealth, it's democrats)Republican wealth is aquired over the long haul, democrats want it all NOW and don't care how they step on anyone to get it. There's a difference; Jeremy.

Poor "rich" NJ.

I think the rule is that if a vacancy occurs (be it U.S. or state congress or state governor), there will be an election for that office whenever the next general election is as long as the vacancy occurs 51 days or more before that election. So, if Menendez was forced out of office before mid-September 08, the governor would pick his replacement for up until the 08 elections, but NJ would elect a senator to fill the four years remaining in that term (as well as the other senate seat, i.e., Lautenberg's). When Gov. McGreevey resigned, it was controversial because he didn't leave office until after the 51-day window was entered, even though he announced that was going to step down before that 51-day window, and there was no election for the remainder of his term in 2004 as there would have been had he immediately resigned. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's New Jersey law.

Personally, unless there's a huge GOP wave, I don't see NJ electing a Republican. NJ voters have repeatedly proven they don't mind corruption.

I now live in New Jersey, and I have to say that I don't ever remember any state where the first requirement to run for a major office is being more corrupt than anyone in the race.

My God this state is run by crooks!

JAT is correct. As an old Cape May boy, S.Jersey is Pub but just.... N. Jersey is and has been Dem-Mafia-Tony Soprano land. There is no way a Pub wins a Senate seat unless Men. and Laut. are both indicted and the courts are all impeached. It is not going to happen. The East is now lost and the RNC better shore up the South, the Mid-West and SW or it is going to be a minority party for years to come. There are 3 people in Jersey who are liked as Pubs: Steve Forbes, Tom Kean and Bret Schundler. All 3 would get killed all over again. I wish it were not so, but I am not a dreamer ; I am a realist in politics. I live in the Soviet Republic of Ca. and I know whereof I speak. Arnold is the only Pub who has a chance to cop a Senate seat from Boxer. But otherwise, Ca. is blue till the cows come home! The GOP has to learn to recruit good communicating conservPubs with charism and ethics to now campaign in the Red States as well as any remote chances in the Blue States. No more Hastarts, no more Frists, no more Blunts but more Shaddag's, more Steele types and even more Santorum types in Red States.

Anyone who thinks that a Republican can win in New Jersey needs to put down their crack pipe.

There are now no states north of Virginia where the Republicans are in a position to really win state wide offices that are currently held by the Democrats.

As an aside, New Jersey has one of the most segregated state education systems in the US and a higher per capita number of schools administrators than anywhere else in the US.

There is no way a moderate in NJ can every vote for any candidate who would lower taxes where the candidate has a chance of winning. If a person in NJ wants to lower their taxes they either have to move to another state or cheat. My guess is that most of them cheat.

More Steele types and Santorum types Glenn Koons says the GOP needs? In other words; we the people want those who are willing to SPEAK what is right and what is wrong. That TRUTH is not subjective. That all actions must be weighed to AN OBJECTIVE source of truth. (in a word GOD)

We need to be GOD centered again.(don't tell me I'm looking for a theocracy)A theocracy is where one faith PRACTICE dominates a country. NO...GOD IS GOD and GOD is a SPRIT of GOOD.
Authentic or Objective good. Not a good that
makes oneself look good. We are good in respect
to THAT SPIRIT who wished us to be like "Him"
and HE is AUTHENTICALLY GOOD.

Biblically "what good does it do to love those who only love you...even the PAGANS do that?"

LOVE is GOD. GOD is LOVE. God is SPIRIT.
(keep repeating that line to yourselves folks when you should want to: honk a horn at the guy
in FRONT of you stopped at a red light, as soon as the light turns green. Hey...give 'em a chance to move his leg from brake to gas (the guy could be a disabled vet, 80 years old, or saw something you don't see from your vantage point behind him)

Please and Thank you or SAY NOTHING if you can't say something good (self control is a fruit of the Holy Spirit and does much to bring peace.)

Don't go to work to TALK with the guy in the next cubicle giving opinions loudly in an open room where not all share your idea UNLESS you want someone to peek over from thier cubicle and state
their opinion. In a word, go to your cubicle and work QUIETLY...in respect to all and for the objective of doing your job and others theirs and
TAKE CONVERSATIONS with your bosom work buddy to a private place AT LUNCH...don't talk loudly in the work place to BUST the 'conservative guy'
(it's rude) It says - heh heh I get to state my ideas and that guy over there can't say a thing because "I'm been here longer" heh heh...

SELF CONTROL, PATIENCE, KINDNESS (aka consideration for others) PEACE (it begins with 'me' as the song goes) JOY (ie; I know where
I came from and what I'm destined for someday; and this earth is but a testing ground FOR THAT
ETERNITY OF LIGHT AND GLORY-so who cares what
another mortal thinks about my fashion sense or
home size, or income.)

Each time I rise above the earthly way...I come closer to union with that AUTHENTIC G0(o)D we are here to come into union with. (the mature understand) mature spirit, conservative spirit,
faithfilled spirit. (liberals are of childISH mind seeking here and now fun...not any different to the goings on in those child day care centers;
of toddlers (who only see the here now and toys for thier enjoyment)

"when I was a child I thought like a child, when I became a man I put childISH things behind me"

Liberal minds live only for NOW...and don't get in my way with a bunch of your rules and expectations (which would benefit the GOOD of all or aka the Common Good)

Pray such types mature and grow into the spirit of truth.

I agree with Glenn. Kean, Schundler and Forbers are failures. Assemblyman Bill Baroni and US Attorney Chris Christie are the future of the GOP in NJ.

An appointment to the Senate can last no longer than two years - a special election is held whenever the next general election comes around. This was what occurred in Missouri after Mel Carnahan was elected posthumously in 2000. His wife was appointed to the seat, but had to face a special election for the remainder of the term in 2002.

Notice also the terms stay intact - when Talent won in 2002, he had only the four years left on the term to serve, not a fresh six.

I wouldn't spend much time or money on NJ. Look what good it did us this year. Ditto RI. We need to concentrate our efforts on more competitive states, like the Great Lakes region, rather than in states which have gone "dark blue."

One exception should be California, though. Sooner or later, even the coastal areas will wake up and see what Democrats have done to the state's economy, and Republicans will compete well again there.

Jim,

How can the Republicans compete in California when the total number of whites is going down in California? As California becomes more Hispanics, the chance that the Republicans can be competative will keep going down. What position can the republicans take that will cause mexican-Americans to vote for them instead of the Democrats?