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The Myth of Joe Average

As a Republican and as a Conservative, the election results from two weeks ago are still as painful as my stitches from surgery that same day. By any rational perspective, replacing the Republican majority in Congress with a Democratic one is sure to raise taxes, give away our rights to government control, and subject the nation to even larger doses of "Blame Bush" dysfunction. Perhaps thirty percent desires the last point, but I sincerely doubt that even one-fifth of the nation wants those other aspects of Donkey Rule. Yet the Democrats won, by playing on concerns about the Iraq War in many places, and by out and out lying to voters in many other places. It will be interesting to see how many of these "conservative" Democrats, elected in close races because they promised to avoid the extremism of Pelosi and Rangel, choose their word over their party, and who realizes that they cannot be Leftists and still be re-elected. But that is not what I am writing about today. Today I am writing about the myth of the average American.

I am an individualist. One reason I became a Conservative instead of a Liberal, was that in actual practice the Liberals demanded conformity to the party line far more often than Conservatives did. For all the claims by Liberals that they alone represented the people overall, it was always the Conservatives whose actual behavior encouraged me to think for myself, to express my opinion even when it was not in line with some national headquarters, and to advance new perspectives rather than just sit and listen to some appointed figurehead. That's why I always found it so funny that Liberals accused Conservatives of supporting Bush in lockstep, when in actual fact the Republicans had trouble maintaining control at times because of the wide range of opinions on the key issues within their ranks. We are, by nature and by choice, far better in practice than they are, and truer to our promise than the Liberals have been for more than a generation.

But we failed. We let pettiness separate our different parts, and a struggle for supremacy pit us against each other. I have said before that a signal symptom of our weakness this year was that so many Republicans chose not to support President Bush, never realizing that the man who collected more votes in 2004 than anyone in history was key to their own survival - not because Bush was so popular, but because the Democrats' plan was always based on pitting the Republicans against themselves, making Right-side voters choose between their President and their Congressman, which was finally resolved by so many who threw up their hands and stayed home, leaving the government to the people least trustworthy for the job.

This means we have a hard task ahead of us. First, the GOP has to get over its ego, stop playing territorial games and remember the lessons taught by Goldwater, Reagan, and George W. Bush. Then they have to listen to America, because even when the GOP comes back into power, it will be useless unless the party is serious about making promises which matter, and keeping them. Fortunately and unfortunately, the Democrats are fools.

There was a time when Democrats were formidable adversaries, who not only knew how to win elections but who had serious commitment to the health and welfare of America. Those days, however, were long ago - the Democrats have fallen into thinking that the win is everything, that popularity of the moment will somehow magically provide the legacy they crave, and that telling enough lies about Republicans will always fool enough people to keep them in power. That possibility exists, of course, as evidenced by the last election, but there is a crucial flaw in the Democrats' thinking, one which could also hurt the Republicans, but to my mind not so much: The myth of Joe Average.

James Carville is pretty mad, but then, that's normal for him. This time though, he's blaming Howard Dean because he thinks the Democrats could have done much, much better in the elections, perhaps to the point of claiming veto-proof majorities now or in the near future. But Carville is wrong on this point. Not that the Democrats could not have enjoyed greater numbers than they gained; that could have happened if certain things had gone their way. But the Democrats made one crucial error; they looked at the collective demographics in each race and tried to appeal to what they saw as the Average American in each case. This was a mistake, and it says a lot about how the Democrats think of Americans, as if they were merely pawns rather than individuals. If you look at the ads the Democrats ran during the late campaign, along with the predictable slime attacks and lies about Republicans, there was a clear theme which tried to sell the Democrats as strong on National Security, dedicated to traditional American values, and determined to listen to the public, three key traits which in actual practice the Democrats as a whole and especially in their leadership have clearly not embraced in memory. So while resentment and anger in the guts of Republicans caused many of them to stay home, and bitterness about Iraq caused many Independent voters to forget about the strong economy, all the good done in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the lack of terrorist attacks since 9/11 - three things we cannot expect a Democratic Congress to pay much attention to, either - and "send a message" by voting in the Party of Façade, not many people at all bought into the Donk ad campaigns. The Democrats won in spite of their advertising, not because of it. And while the actual ads will soon be forgotten, there is a taste in the mouths of the voters, best expressed in the sentiment sent to Democrats - "You'd better not be lying to us again".

Habits are hard things to break, though. For the Republicans, that means getting away from the turf fights and back to what made the party work - grassroots focus and listening to the people, all of them. Because there are tens of millions of people willing to speak their mind to the Republicans, and once they realize that the Democrats are only interested in selling to the theoretical "average" guy, with no mind to what real people need and demand, many more may be willing to give the Republicans a second chance, provided the Republicans show they won't blow it.

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Comments (6)

I have said before that ... (Below threshold)
Jay:

I have said before that a signal symptom of our weakness this year was that so many Republicans chose not to support President Bush, never realizing that the man who collected more votes in 2004 than anyone in history was key to their own survival - not because Bush was so popular, but because the Democrats' plan was always based on pitting the Republicans against themselves, making Right-side voters choose between their President and their Congressman, which was finally resolved by so many who threw up their hands and stayed home, leaving the government to the people least trustworthy for the job.

Uh, President Bush currently has a 31% approval rating, largely due to his incompetence and that of his administration. The only people still supporting him are die-hard loyalists like yourself.

The majority of the country dislikes Bush right now, including independents who voted for Democrats by an eighteen point margin.

But the Democrats made one crucial error; they looked at the collective demographics in each race and tried to appeal to what they saw as the Average American in each case. This was a mistake, and it says a lot about how the Democrats think of Americans, as if they were merely pawns rather than individuals.

Right. Says someone trying to defend the party that uses abortion and gay marriage as wedge issues to drive certain demographics to the polls.

Face it, the Republicans had twelve years to show the American people what they stood for and, largely thanks to George W. Bush and his ill-conceived war, they were thrown out.

D.J. Could not a... (Below threshold)
harris:

D.J.

Could not agree with you more, and with the first respondent less. If Republicans had based their campaign on successes rather than failures, we would have won. I was enraged that no one based the GOP effort on judicial appointments. To me that was THE biggie. Presidents come and go but justices and appeal court judges stay forever. But then we also have the great ecomony, tax cuts, No Child Left Behind, and to me, at 66, the Medicare drug program. The latter, I know, is an anathma to many conservatives, but it has saved seniors on limited retirement income many thousands of dollars and would have attracted senior votes if used properly. No one chose to remind their constituency of successes -- and the stakes. Instead they ran as far from Bush as possible and now we now where that got them.

Face it, the Republicans ha... (Below threshold)
Steve_in_Corona:

Face it, the Republicans had twelve years to show the American people what they stood for and, largely thanks to George W. Bush and his ill-conceived war, they were thrown out.
-------------------------------------
Well, that sure beats the Democrats who were tossed out once they got full control after just TWO short years - back in 1994.

And in case you missed it - Bush (and the 'ill-conceived' war) were on the ballot in 2004, and won by a few million votes.

DJ's point specifically said NOT that Bush was so popular (and your 31% rating is bunk, especially the day of the election, diminishing your credibility as a serious poster)

The point is that the abandonment on judges, the abandonment on serious war issues (like questioning detainees) is where many Republicans (like DeWine,McCain,Graham) left Bush and joined lips with Ted Kennedy's rearend.

Instead of speaking with a united-party voice on the most important issues of the day - we were fractured as a party, (DJ's point Jay) and thus lost to a party that did not offer a single substantive alternative to the Iraq war's ultimate solution.


One would suspect that DeWi... (Below threshold)
LorenU:

One would suspect that DeWine regrets his actions now that he will be unemployed come January. Graham will regret his choices when he loses his primary election in 2008 and McCain is dead as a presidential candidate. IMHO the Republicans lost because they lost the pocketbook conservatives. GWB is partly at fault for this becasue (he should have made permanent tax cuts the first order of business in 2005) he is a big government conservative. Republicans have to regain their advantage over the Democrats on tax cuts, cutting the deficit (controlling spending), earmarks and other pork barrel spending. The medicare prescripton bill and the farm bill was the start and should have cost the republicans in 2004. Also, a large majority of pocketbook conservatives are pro-immigration. Unless the Republicans regain the pro-immigration land of opportunity issue they will keep losing elections. I think Dick Armey should be named to some advisory position to lead the blind Republicans in DC back to the 1994 party. Republicans promised much and delivered little, including victory in Iraq, that is why they lost.

Great piece, DJ! I linked t... (Below threshold)

Great piece, DJ! I linked to it over at the Sanity site.

DJ...A little disa... (Below threshold)

DJ...

A little disappointed you missed the main reason that Republicans lost, and deserved to lose:

They stopped being Conservatives, and started acting like Democrats, and their Conservative base bailed on them.




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