Being a math person. The split will be 232-203. The Republicans will need 15 "Blue Dogs" to switch to control a majority or the flip side is the democrats will need to hold 30. Now it is not as easy as that since the Republicans have some moderate to liberal members. It would suggest that a major move to the left is not going to happen especially if GWB leads the domestice policy with vetos. GWB needs to veto some spending bills in his last two years to win back the pocketbook conservatives. IMHO, the Republicans lost in 2006 because they were big earmarkers and big fence builders. A winning Republican Party must be for smaller governement and for the immigrant (pro-immigration). If Republicans can win back 35 of the 44 blue-dog districts they would have a 238 majority.

That should be pretty easy. All they have to do is knock off 80% of their targets while not losing a single seat themselves. Sounds simple enough.

To really understand the power of the blue dogs, you need alittle context.

Hastert needed to find 6 additional votes among those with a lifetime ACU rating below 80 to get legislation past. He had 16 republicans and 4 democrats with ACU lifetime rattings of 55 to 79 in which to find those 6 votes.

Pelosi needs to find 23 votes of those with an ACU rating above 30 (assuming every open democratic seat replacement and 2/3 of those replacing republicans will earn ACU ratings 30 and below). But there are only 19 democrats and no republicans in the ACU rating range of 31 to 45 (the most likely hunting ground). Those other four votes (after securing 100% agreement on the left mind) must come from the remaing 1/3 of democrats who replaced republicans, the one remaining republican with an ACU lifetime rating below 55 and the 10 democrats who have ACU ratings above 45. So even assuming that 2/3 of those democrats replacing republicans will vote as liberals and assuming she can get 100% of her very liberal, liberal and moderately liberal factions in her party, Pelosi still comes up 4 votes short. And so horse trading, threatening, bribing or maybe even compromising to get those last 4 votes is going to greatly shape legislation.

For more, read this. http://blogs.wizbangblog.com/2006/11/09/wrangling-cats.php

Of course, I hope the optimists are correct. But, sadly, I see many Pubs as well as these so called conservs, Blue Dogs just falling into place if the leadership beckons. Dems are back in power, which they relish and some so called conservs will not stop the Lefties from their call to socialize America and weaken its nation defenses. The House today , Pub run, could still not get enough votes to open some oil explorations. They are doomed unless these 44-45 Blues turn Pub and then I wouldn't bet the farm. When the Pubs did not change leadership, go on the offensive, I knew that 2008 would be a sham election and that conservPubs would either stay at home again, blast them, or divide over whoever the Pubs put up on parochial issues. I am very frustrated over this turn of events and until I see some new offensive moves, even failing ones, especially on tax cuts, and more military action against the Islamofascists, I see dark days ahead with Lefty Dem leadership, Blue dogs, cats or RINOS alike.

Loren U, many of the seats that the Dems won are ones that Republicans are not getting back. A majority of their gains came from Democratic trending areas like the northeast, the midwest, and Arizona. Only five seats were picked up in the South and three of those were in districts won by John Kerry that won't be voting Republican any time soon and the others were won by Conservative Dem Heath Shuler in North Carolina and the other was Nick Lampson who won Tom Delay's old district. Lampson's seat is very winnable for Republicans, but a lot of Republicans were moved out of the district in the 2003 redistricting to make nearby districts more Republican.