A poll conducted by Franklin Pierce College and WBZ-TV shows Romney catching up to the leaders. From the Associated Press;
John McCain 29 percent
Rudy Giuliani 28 percentMitt Romney 22 percent
Get the full story at the link above. Next was Gingrich with 5% - or undecided with 9%, depending on how you score it.
It's good news for Romney, who has moved up to a competitive level for the first time. Despite his organization, endorsements, and fundraising, he had been lagging badly here and elsewhere. Perhaps his introductory ad blitz - a "getting to know you" series - is having the desired effect?
It is worst for McCain. New Hampshire was the key to his candidacy surviving as the sole challenger to frontrunner Bush in 2000. His victory there was a huge shock to the Republican race. But he had some things working for him then, of course. He totally abandoned Iowa and concentrated on NH, putting all his eggs in the one basket. It was a big gamble, but since he was unlikely to make noise in Iowa anyway, a worthwhile one.
Something else helped it pay off, though. Bradley was only offering token opposition to Gore on the Democratic side, and the outcome was never in doubt. That allowed independents and Democrats to cross over and vote for McCain in states which allow that - states like NH, SC, and MI. Many of them really thought he was the best man in either party, but many also were loyal Democrats who wanted to avoid a Bush "coronation" and keep the fight going in the GOP race. It's less likely those voters will cross over for him again, with a dozen candidates and a hotly contested race on the Democratic side this year.
McCain can't win the nomination without strong support from the conservatives he has aggravated regularly for the last 20 years or so. Those who support Gingrich, Brownback, etc., will very likely never be McCain supporters before the nomination is decided. His best chance was attracting undecideds and Romney supporters if the latter's campaign fizzled. With Romney gaining, McCain's chances slump.
He isn't going down without a fight, though. He has all but said Pawlenty would be his Veep, a strong selection. And he is still campaigning hard. But he's hit the ceiling of voters he can attract on his own, and his last remaining chance will soon be to go negative - but that would split the Party and make winning the general election almost impossible.
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2008 Presidential Race, New Hampshire, Polls
Tags: McCain, poll, Romney
Comments (3)
Read the following before t... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Anthony | March 17, 2007 5:54 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Read the following before touting a phoney poll:
March 15, 2007 - 11:44 am
So I saw this new Franklin Pierce poll that Hugh Hewitt is touting.
Now something seems fishy about this. Romney's ads haven't been moving people in any state, but, apparently, New Hampshire. And while Mitt Romney is well known, he doesn't have a home field advantage, as his consultant Rich Killion said recently:
"People assume that just because [Romney]'s from a neighboring state, he will have a huge advantage. But Giuliani and McCain are household names in this state, and McCain got one out of two votes in the last contested primary up here," said Rich Killion, a New Hampshire political consultant advising Romney.
I just took it as Rich Killion playing the expectation game. Then I realized where I had heard the name before. He used to run Franklin Pierce polls. (hiring announcement, bio from current firm). He defended the Franklin Pierce poll when it was criticized, by the Washington Post, for having poor interviewers (the students are poor, but I mean unskilled):
"Their quality is tremendous," said Richard Killion, who oversees Franklin Pierce polls, later adding: "It really improved when I started paying them."
The article continues with a description of the actual methodological problems at Franklin Pierce:
Surveys taken by students for Franklin Pierce College, which is reporting a Democratic preference poll today, uses samples based on lists of registered voters that have proven to be incomplete, outdated or both. ...
Likewise, student interviewers at Franklin Pierce College also don't randomly select people once they reach a household. They talk to whomever answers the telephone unless they're sample is skewing more male or female. In that case, if they need more women, they ask in subsequent calls to speak to women, and vice-versa if their sample appears to be light on men.
So I called Mr. Killion, first at his office. He wasn't there, but I was told, "I don't think that Franklin Pierce is still Rich's client." I called his cell, got voice mail. Funny, no call back.
So let me get this straight. Two polls show Romney in the game in New Hampshire (the other is Suffolk University, "in the heart of Boston"). Both of them have shoddy methodology. The most recent is Romney's consultant's old polling shop.
Right....
http://www.eyeon08.com/
1. Posted by Anthony | March 17, 2007 5:54 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 17, 2007 17:54
2. Posted by Spencer | March 17, 2007 6:39 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Great. This year a flip-flopper from Massachusetts will be nominated by the Republicans. Did we not learn a lesson in 2004?
2. Posted by Spencer | March 17, 2007 6:39 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 17, 2007 18:39
3. Posted by Jim Addison | March 18, 2007 2:30 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It's hardly surprising that a political consultant used to run a poll. Every major campaign has at least one who meets that description.
If Killion is still connected to the FP poll while working for Romney, that would raise serious questions. So far, all you have is someone not returning a call to some blogger he doesn't know.
You have quite a way to go to justify the accusation this is a "phony poll." That insinuates fraud on the part of a lot of people.
And unless there is also a connection to the other poll, how to account for the similar results?
Again, insinuation unsupported by evidence.
You should also identify yourself as a pro-McCain blogger.
3. Posted by Jim Addison | March 18, 2007 2:30 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2007 02:30