Fred Thompson's nascent campaign is doing well, or pretty well, or not so well. It all depends on where you sit.

In the Old Media, the blogosphere, and inside the DC Beltway, he's the hottest thing since sliced bread. In national polls, he scores quite respectfully for a fellow not formally in the race. He trails Giuliani and McCain by large margins, but usually comes ahead of Romney, the party's leader in campaign donations so far.

But in the early primary states, Fred isn't making much noise. He's many months behind the other leading contenders in organization and lining up endorsements and fundraising gurus. A late-entry candidate needs to make a splash in one or more of the early primaries, lest he be dismissed as a media flash-in-the-pan. Liz Sidoti of the Associated Press reports:

Fred Thompson, a Republican registering well in national polls as he flirts with a presidential run, is the talk of this town's political elite.

It's a different story in early primary states where voters will choose the GOP nominee.

"You really don't hear much about him at all from people around here," said Irene Blom, chairwoman of the Republican Party in Marion County, Iowa. Added Paul Hogan, her counterpart in Georgetown County, S.C.: "He's mentioned a little, but there's no crescendo yet."

Should the actor and former Tennessee senator enter the race, he will be months behind his top competitors in building a campaign organization, raising money and securing support in key states.

Read it all at the link above.

You have to figure that Romney will cash in on his $23 million at some point; he is a very persuasive speaker, and that bankroll will allow people to discover that. McCain is having money trouble, so it is possible he will be forced out before the actual votes begin - but don't count on it just yet. Giuliani is cruising along, but bruising himself by continually reminding voters of his liberal views on abortion. If Thompson runs far back in the pack in the early contests, he will become an also-ran very quickly. He needs to make a statement early, in which case he could ride a strong momentum forward.

In Iowa and NH, it seems many votes are won not by policy positions, but by being able to name each voter's grandchildren in correct order by age. Thompson needs to get away from the television studios and out into the hustings if he is serious about running.