A new Des Moines Sunday Register poll shows Mitt Romney and John Edwards moving out to early leads in their respective parties, according to Mike Glover of the Associated Press.

Read his report at the preceding link. Among Republicans, Romney leads with 30% support, while Senator John McCain draws 18% and Rudy Giuliani gets 17%, a statistical tie for second.

On the Democratic side, Edwards is now backed by 29%, while 23% goes to Senator Barack Obama and 21% favor Senator Hillary Clinton, also within the margin of error for second place.

Local activists in both parties note the leaders have spent a lot of time in Iowa, which comes as no surprise. However, their rivals haven't exactly been strangers, either. One suspects none of the candidates still needs a road map to get around the state.

Edwards surprised everyone in 2004 with his close second-place finish to Kerry, ahead of the pre-caucus favorites Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt. He has carefully nurtured and built upon his organization there ever since. I consider him the favorite in Iowa on the Democratic side because of this, and because it is almost a make-or-break state for him. If he fails to win the state after all the time and effort he's spent here, he has little hope of staying in the race very long.

Romney has put a good bit of time and money into Iowa, too, but he needs the state for different reasons. He will be competitive in New Hampshire, but even if he wins there, his showing will be discounted as he has been the Governor of neighboring Massachusetts, and officeholders from New England tend to fare well in the Granite State. He lacks the organization and base of support in South Carolina to guarantee a good finish there, and now Florida is moving up their primary, too, sending all the candidates scrambling for votes in the Sunshine State.

If Romney can win Iowa AND New Hampshire, though, it will establish him as the frontrunner immediately, and the free media will be worth millions. The formerly mainstream media loves nothing better than an upset by a "dark horse" candidate. While some Old Media outlets have tried to sink Romney with attacks on his religion, the herd will stampede in his direction if he can deliver a surprise. Recall how media made Jimmy Carter an instant star after his Iowa showing - which, by the way, was a second place finish behind "Uncommitted."

The third-place candidate in national polls is winning Iowa in both parties! Should be an interesting campaign . . .