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Poll: McCain, Clinton lead in Iowa, SC, NH

The latest ARG polls of likely primary voters in the early states shows Hillary Clinton and John McCain leading their respective fields in all three states. Full results at ARG.

In Iowa, Hillary garners 31% support over Edwards' 25% and Obama with only 11%. The only polls that show her at or over 30%, going back to last October, are ARG polls, though. They also show Obama with about half the support other recent polls give him.

On the Republican side, McCain is seen leading Giuliani with 25% to 23, as Romney trails with 16%. However, again: the only poll showing McCain at or above 25% since before Christmas are ARG polls.

The other states have a similar tale to tell:

In New Hampshire, the poll shows Hillary with a commanding lead of 34% to Edwards' 18% and Obama's 15%. Hillary's number is right about the RCP poll average, but ARG and Survey USA have consistently given Hillary high results, while ARG is alone in finding lower support for Obama than the other pollsters.

On the GOP race, McCain is seen ahead with 30% (his highest in any NH poll since January), with Romney at 23% (sharply down from other recent polls) and Giuliani at 21. The RCP average has Romney ahead with 30.0 to McCain's 23.7, so once again ARG is out of line with the others.

~~~~~~~~

In South Carolina, Hillary leads with 34% to Edwards' 30% and Obama with 18%. Obama has been polling in the mid-to-upper 20s here since February, and the support shown for both Clinton and Edwards is their highest of recently reported polls.

McCain is also the beneficiary of ARG in SC with 32%, where they have been the ONLY poll giving him over 30% since before Christmas. The RCP average shows him with a lead, but only with 24% over Rudy's 20 and Fred Thompson's 13.3, with Gingrich at 11.7 and Romney at 9.0.

It sure seems that someone at ARG likes Hillary and McCain, doesn't it?

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Comments (3)

Found <a href="http://www.m... (Below threshold)

Found this. Dunno if it matters or not with respect to this poll...

It is important to note that what ARG does, as explained above, is very different from the way other pollsters ask about party ID. ARG asks about party registration on some states, party identification in others and then combines the two results into a single variable. Whatever the merits of this approach, the will results not be comparable to those of other polling organizations.

Party registration is not the same as party identification - respondents will sometimes provide a different answer when asked how they are registered as compared to which party the feel closer to. In states that require it, some voters may choose a party affiliation in order to cast a ballot in a contested primary when they "consider themselves" independent or even closer to the other party. In southern states, this phenomenon has a name - the Dixiecrat - which describes those who register as Democrats in order to vote in local primaries in areas where Democrats almost always win local general elections.

My own firm often asks about both party registration and party ID, often in the same survey (e.g. Are you registered? [If yes] are you registered as a Republican, Democrat or independent? Now regardless of how you are registered, do you consider yourself...?]. The results are often quite different. Those tempted to weight by party identification to match statistics for party registration provided by election officials risk introducing serious bias into their results.

It must have boosted Shrill... (Below threshold)
scrapiron[TypeKey Profile Page]:

It must have boosted Shrillary's ego. Today she released her communist manifesto. There is to be only two classes of people, the haves and the have nots. She directly stated that we should not be allowed to be individuals and freely earn what we can. Those too sorry to work should have exactly the same as those that slave at a job to advance their financial position. Evidently she and Bill have ripped off enough to go with the $3.3 million they have (recently) ripped off from the elderly to make them feel secure in communism and that they will be one of the haves. Won't happen, they will be one of the hanged by the American public that value freedom.
" Presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton outlined a broad economic vision Tuesday, saying it's time to replace an "on your own" society with one based on shared responsibility and prosperity." A quote of Shrillary Clinton

Nice catch, Lee, but as you... (Below threshold)

Nice catch, Lee, but as you note it may not account for the disparity in these specific cases.

McCain, of course, has thrived on attracting independent votes - it's what made him appear competitive in 2000. Hillary, OTOH, has terrible negatives among independents, so perhaps the methodology about party ID isn't what causes ARG to favor these particular candidates in poll after poll.

While most people aren't tuned into the races yet, the polls of those who are have a decided influence. For one thing, they dominate the chattering classes (including bloggers) when there isn't other, bigger news, and so influence the perception of voters as they become "tuned in" to the campaign. They also have an impact on donations, and money is the mother's milk of politics.




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