The latest numbers are out from Rasmussen Reports:
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top, but his support has slipped to 23%. That's down two points from a week ago and is his lowest level of support all year. Earlier, Giuliani had consistently enjoyed support in the mid-30s. That was before Thompson's name was added to the mix and before Giuliani stumbled on the abortion issue in the first GOP debate of the season.
Thompson, who just formed an exploratory committee and is the newest face in the race, immediately moved into second place. With 17% support, he is within six points of the frontrunner. That's closer than anybody has been to Giuliani in 20 consecutive weekly polls. Thompson is also competitive in a variety of general election match-ups with potential Democratic nominees.
Read it all at the link above.
Rudy is continuing a gradual slide since March, although he retains the lead. Thompson's surge into second isn't really surprising: he's been the talk of the race for the last couple months, and the numbers are within the margin of error from where he's been polling anyway. Romney continues to edge ahead incrementally (now 15%) even as McCain fades away to fourth place at 14%, matching his low point of the year.
Thompson has shown he can attract conservatives yearning for an alternative and wow Republican audiences. His next challenges will be raising money and building an organization, for which his exploratory committee presents a good test. Even in the most optimistic scenario, he has waited too long to organize effectively in Iowa - which gives him a great excuse to skip the state's caucuses, which represent the most expensive delegates at both parties' conventions.
The big loser here is McCain, who is slowly drifting back in the pack. It's hard to imagine circumstances now under which he could rally and win the nomination. Also, the "second tier" candidates might as well go home; with Thompson's show of strength, none of them can harbor any practical hopes of breaking through.
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2008 Presidential Race, Polls, Primaries, Republican
Tags: poll, presidential campaign, primaries, Republicans
Comments (2)
This is absurd. No, not the... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Ben Crain | June 6, 2007 12:13 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
This is absurd. No, not the information conveyed, per se. Just the fact that ANYBODY is seriously trying to analyze an election about 1.5 yrs from now. About the only thing more absurd is that there really are candidates, and campaign organizations, already in full-swing! About this time next year -- or, perhaps, a bit earlier (But not much earlier. Say spring '08.) -- we should all get-in-gear 'bout presidential politics. But now!!?? Hells-Bells, we've only just recently had a more-or-less national election, that of '06. It is VERY unhealthy for Campaign Politics to be almost literally 24/7, year-in, year-out. God Almighty, OVERWHELMINGLY MOST of the time, OVERWHELMINGLY MOST of journalistic/public attention should be devoted to government (and the evaluation thereof), not elections. But the converse reigns. Does the media even understand the difference? I do think much of the incompetence of elected politicians, and much of the cynicism of the public 'bout said politicians, stems from the simple fact that, to be elected, a politician must devote almost all of his/her time/energy to developing "electoral" skills, not "governing" skills.
Aw, but you'll say: That's inevitable, given what's given in modern culture/society. To which I respond: Yes, given what's given, that's inevitable. What should be changed about what's given? TV. It's all due to 24/7 TV. If there were one thing I could do to dramatically improve/reform almost every aspect of 'merican life, it would be simple: ABOLISH TV! Easy for me to say, since I NEVER watch TV, except when the Redskins are playing. (Yes, I live in DC.) But I could do without that -- for the greater good. And, given how atrocious my 'skins have been, of late, that wouldn't be much of a sacrifice!
1. Posted by Ben Crain | June 6, 2007 12:13 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 6, 2007 00:13
2. Posted by Jim Addison | June 6, 2007 3:37 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I appreciate and share your frustration, Ben, but we aren't talking about the election in November of next year. The first major test for Republicans is the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa in August of THIS year, two months away.
The first caucuses in Iowa and the first primary in NH will happen in January, or earlier if South Carolina moves its primary up to stay ahead of Florida. That could force NH to move up, and Iowa is determined to stay ahead of New Hampshire. We could easily be seeing delegates awarded in December of this year, only six months from now.
While early polls aren't necessarily predictive of a final result, they exert strong influence on the perception of a campaign. Those who run better than expected can get millions worth of free media and the donations to match. The appearance of a faltering campaign can have the opposite effect.
2. Posted by Jim Addison | June 6, 2007 3:37 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 6, 2007 03:37