For some reason, final numbers from the GOP candidates aren't expected for a couple of days, but the advance word seems reliable. Rudy Giuliani will top the GOP list with around $19 million. How much of that may be used in the primary campaign is unknown at this time, but the number indicates the Mayor's financial support hasn't been affected by his shrinking poll results (which still lead the GOP field). Former Governor Mitt Romney comes in a close second with about $18 million, but several million$ below his leading 1st quarter take, so the big number fails the expectations test. Also, Romney has loaned/given his campaign another couple million of his own money, which indicates he may have a cash flow problem.

The big disappointment hits Senator John McCain, until early this year the presumed front-runner, who also failed to beat his 1st quarter total of "only" $13 million by more than $1 million. His distance behind the others has to affect potential future donors as much as his falling poll numbers. The McCain campaign announced another "restructuring" as a result, cutting at least 50 staff positions and asking others to take a pay cut or work for free. This is not a sign of a campaign "on the move."

Now, I don't blame McCain for staying in. He obviously remembers the last cycle, when John Kerry was down and out in December of 2003 and had to mortgage his interest in the family home to keep his campaign afloat, having been badly outdone by Howard Dean. The difference here is that Giuliani is unlikely to evince the stupidity Dean offered, Romney isn't a joke candidate like Edwards was, and Thompson might not fizzle instantly upon formally entering the race like Wes Clark did.

Still, a campaign strategy which relies upon the total collapse of every other contender in a multi-candidate field doesn't sound like a winner.

No one yet has come back to win the GOP nod after failing as a frontrunner unless they struck back immediately. Reagan turned the '80 race around after losing Iowa, as did Bush the Elder in '88, and the Younger did it after losing NH in '00, but none of them had lost half their standing in national polls before the first loss.

By any objective assessment, McCain is toast. Burnt toast.

Thompson is rumored to have raised nearly $5 million for his "exploratory committee," not very impressive in this cycle. However, he earns a free pass because he hasn't formally entered the race yet. The next quarter may be decisive for him, though. The nice poll numbers need to convert into ready cash, or he will go down in history as a "boomlet."